The GOP's Growing Hispanic Problem

Census population estimates released Thursday find that as of July 2009, minorities collectively made up a majority in four states. If the GOP hopes to remain relevant they will need to move beyond their base of white voters.

Republicans are tough on immigration. Republicans are tough on Sonia Sotomayor. Hispanics will now have their opportunity to be tough on Republicans. Census population estimates released Thursday find that as of July 1, 2009, minorities collectively made up a majority in four states (Hawaii, New Mexico, California, and Texas), 317 counties, and the District of Columbia.

The change will only accelerate. Of children under age 5, almost half -  48.3% - are minorities.

Hispanics are, of course, the biggest group among non-white minorities. But the numbers of East Asians and South Asians are also rapidly expanding, both due to immigration and to higher birthrates among immigrants.

The GOP base is found among non-Hispanic whites. It's almost possible to project when this base will cease to yield voting majorities.  The average median age of a non-Hispanic white in the United States is 41.2. That figure for Hispanics....27.4. Blacks and Asians are also considerably younger, with average median ages of 30.3 and 33.7 respectively.

Republicans have worked hard to swing Hispanic voters into the GOP column. Both George W. Bush and John McCain - like George HW Bush and Ronald Reagan before them  - advocated open immigration policies in hopes of appealing to Hispanic voters. But the key fact about Hispanic voters is that they are relatively poor. They respond to economic much more than ethnocultural messages. And Republicans have yet to devise an economic message that is relevant to Hispanic voters and consistent with other GOP themes.

We may feel the tremors of the changing electoral landscape sooner than most believe. It's almost inconceivable that a Republican can win the presidency if he does not carry the state of Texas. Yet more than half the Texas population is minority already, and it will not be long before more than half the Texas electorate is minority as well. Will Texas then follow California into the blue column?

The GOP still has time to fix its Hispanic problem. If the flow of immigration slows, perhaps the time available can be extended a little longer. But the problem will arrive - and must be solved.