The GOP's Budget Challenge
Conservatives face an impossible task: reconciling commitments to not raise taxes, to move to a balanced budget, and to also oppose defense and Medicare cuts.
Money troubles can ruin even the happiest relationships. No wonder that the conservative coalition is experiencing so much strain.
Conservatism could once be described as a three-cornered stool: social, economic and national security conservatives.
Today though it's more relevant to think of conservatism as an attempt to draw a line connecting four points:
1) No tax increase
2) No defense cuts
3) No Medicare cuts
4) Rapid move to a balanced budget.
Obviously it's impossible to meet all four of those commitments. It would be difficult enough to combine #4 with even two of the first three.
Much of the struggle within the conservative world can be understood as a quiet debate over which of those commitments to jettison.
The dominant group within CPAC for example would gladly jettison #2 and is less than enthusiastic about #3. When the Values Voters Summit convenes in October, you'll see that its attendees are ready to jettison #4 and are less than 100% committed to #1.
Much of the 2012 GOP presidential nomination will attempt to send signals as to which commitments each candidate will sacrifice. Since so much of this signaling is non-verbal, it will be hard to pin down who truly is committed to which. But there's a vibe. Tim Pawlenty for example seems less excited about #4 than Mitt Romney, never mind Mitch Daniels. Mike Huckabee's voters will demand unwavering adherence to #3, which puts pressure on 1, 2 and 4.
And so on.
You can play this game at home too - and it may tell you a lot about the kind of conservative you really are.
In the spirit of full disclosure, here's how I'd square the quadrangle.
I don't think we should be moving rapidly to budget balance. The time for budget austerity begins when unemployment drops below 7%, not before.
I don't think we can cut defense spending before we have successfully concluded commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan. And generally I favor the Herb Stein approach to budgeting: First you decide how much it costs to maintain America's global supremacy. Everything else comes after that.
I affirmatively want to see Medicare squeezed. The American health system is wasteful, wasteful, wasteful.
I am prepared to accept tax increases provided they fall on consumption and pollution rather than work, saving and investment. A carbon tax yes, a VAT if need be, but no increases in personal or corporate income taxes or capital gains taxes. On the other hand, the 15% tax rate on corporate dividends seems to me a laughably unjustifiable giveaway, even though I personally benefit from it.