The End of Candidate Giuliani?

By backing Marco Rubio, a candidate who has little overlap with Rudy Giuliani's own brand of Republicanism, Rudy may be signaling that he’s given up on ever running for office again.

Rudy Giuliani’s decision to endorse Marco Rubio in the hotly contested Florida senatorial primary may be more than an act of revenge. By backing a candidate that has little overlap with the brand of Republicanism that he embodies, Rudy may be signaling that he’s given up on ever running for office again.

There is no doubt that the endorsement is payback for the stiffing that Rubio’s opponent, Florida Governor Charlie Crist, gave Giuliani in the 2008 primary. Giuliani had based much of his national strategy on Crist’s expected endorsement – when Crist endorsed McCain instead, he doomed Giuliani's campaign strategy.

Giuliani’s motives are made even more patent by the fact that he would have never endorsed Rubio had Crist not been in the race. Rudy's brand centers on a socially-tolerant, fiscally-conservative, and governance-minded vision for the Republican Party. Rubio represents the opposite wing of the GOP – he’s a socially conservative, Club for Growth ideologue who backed Huckabee in 2008. Giuliani’s endorsement of a Tea Party hero seems to suggest that he values payback over his personal political brand – not exactly what someone who’s mulling a future run would do.

Perhaps Giuliani’s decision to campaign for Rubio was just for the pleasure of sticking it to Crist. But in the context of Giuliani’s recent political maneuvers, the evidence starts stacking up. After floating his name out as a potential contender in the New York Gubernatorial race, he announced that he wouldn’t be running. Ditto to the New York Senatorial race.

If not now, when? And if he decided to run in the future, what brand would he run on? If he planned to run again, a Rubio endorsement only taints the unique niche he’s carved out for himself in state and national politics.

Rudy’s endorsement is powerful because it strikes to the core of Crist’s already-dwindling support. It tells moderate Republicans that they should give Marco Rubio a second look. This endorsement could be the point in this campaign where Rubio’s ascendancy to the Republican nomination becomes inevitable.

But it could also signal the end of the road for a formidable and talented Republican politician: candidate-Giuliani.