The Dems' Perfect Storm
Forget the earthquake catastrophe in Haiti for a moment, how about the political earthquake shaping up for the Democrats in Massachusetts?
Tuesday voters decide who will fill the late Sen. Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat, and what once appeared to be a coronation for the state’s Attorney General, Martha Coakley, now has Republican state senator Scott Brown leading in polls by several points.
How could this happen in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 3-1 margin?
The situation is so grave for Democrats that President Barack Obama changed his mind about not getting involved, and on Sunday visited the state to unleash his charisma to shore up Coakley’s fading chances.
Obama’s entry in the campaign is risky, because in part it’s his policies that have voters turning to the Republicans.
Healthcare reforms are not popular, nor are some of his foreign policy stances. Another rejection of his appeal is the last thing Dems need, witness Obama’s failed efforts to persuade the Olympic Committee to choose Chicago for the 2016 games, and his embarrassing bid at the Copenhagen climate change summit.
Also, Obama visited both Virginia and New Jersey in their respective campaigns for governor – and the Democrats lost both. Republican Bob McDonnell won Virginia, while Chris Christie ousted the unpopular Jon Corzine in New Jersey. More blots on the Obama record.
Still, judging from new reports, it’s mostly Martha Coakley who sabotaged her own campaign by complacency and her assumption that it was in the bag. No need to do homework or worry about her rival. Symbolic of her weak campaign, was misspelling Massachusetts in campaign ads, and her view that there are no al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.
Scott Brown, on the other hand has been bullet-proof effective – never more so when he was asked by a journalist if he thought he had a chance to win Ted Kennedy’s seat. Brown snapped back: “It’s not Ted Kennedy’s seat, it’s not the Democrats’ seat, it’s the people’s seat.” Touche.
If (and it’s still a big “if”) Republicans win the Massachusetts Senate seat, it’ll deprive the Democrats of their magic 60-seat hold on the Senate that prevents a filibuster on healthcare reform, and will likely put the kibosh on it being passed.
While Obama’s image was damaged by his delayed reaction and failure to appreciate the effect of the foiled Christmas day underwear bomber, he’s recovered somewhat by his emotional and quick response to the Haiti earthquake disaster.
No one ever accused Obama of being a slow learner.
Anyway, Massachusetts, which Ted Kennedy owned, has never been mindlessly Democratic territory. It’s had a succession of Republican Governors, and it has a lot of independents who - polls indicate - heavily favor Scott Brown, as they favored Obama during the presidential election campaign.
If, indeed, Kennedy’s Senate seat goes Republican, some think Obama will have to re-think or even drop healthcare reforms which look to be prohibitively costly at a time when U.S. debt and job losses are high. Further taxes in a squeezed economy to pay for healthcare reform make little sense and will be a hard sell.
Should Coakley win, well, Obama and Democrats will breath a little easier . . . but not much. We should know by bedtime Tuesday.