The Dems Healthcare Trap

The Blue Dog Democrats seem to be making a strenuous case for delaying and scaling back the Democratic approach on healthcare reform. What the Blue Dogs miss, of course, is what the party's liberals see clearly: failing to deliver universal coverage will result in the liberal blogosphere tearing the party to pieces.

The single most interesting (to me) outcome of Tuesday night’s election is the degree to which the healthcare bill is now seen as a dire threat to Democratic control of congress.   If so, the Democratic Party leadership is in a trap of its own making.

The health bill has now become a no-win conundrum.  The public is clearly anxious about the economic trajectory and the federal deficit and are quite skeptical that another trillion in federal spending on healthcare will result either in a better health system or in lower costs.  The federal government’s old saw, “you gotta spend money to save money” is now so discredited it is met with grimness rather than a grin.  Democratic claims to the contrary notwithstanding (“victory begets victory,” says Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky in this morning’s Washington Post), the most likely response to a big health bill from the worried middle of the country is a sharp electoral rebuke.

The Blue Dog Democrats get this – they have been living it for six months now – and seem to be making a strenuous case for delaying and scaling back the Democratic approach on health.  What the Blue Dogs miss, of course, is what the liberals see clearly: a failure on universal coverage invites a downward spiral with the liberal blogosphere tearing the party to pieces and depressing the base for 2010. From an electoral standpoint, you never want to have to choose between an energized base and the affection of independents.  They are both “must-haves” yet the debate over healthcare legislation could easily end up delivering neither.