Tea Party Scores Another Primary Upset

In Colorado's GOP senate primary, the Tea Party scored another win when Ken Buck defeated former state Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. But can Buck carry his momentum to a November win?

Ken Buck’s win in yesterday’s Colorado GOP primary is inspiring a lot of activists on the right who believe in the power of the Tea Party movement. Ed Morrisey of HotAir sums up why Buck’s nomination promises a potential victory:

Bennet will be an incumbent defending his seat in an anti-incumbent and anti-Democratic cycle, carrying the endorsement of an unpopular President.  He’ll face a Tea Party candidate in Ken Buck, who defied the GOP establishment and won massive grassroots support despite getting outspent by over $2 million.  What could go wrong for Democrats?

This argument is also strong because last night’s election showed greater turnout for the Republicans over the Democrats. 407,110 Republicans voted last night, compared to only 338,537 Democrats. Republican voters are clearly more enthusiastic then Democratic voters, but some analysts warn this may not be enough for the general election.

Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor for The Cook Political Report, however told FrumForum that the larger Republican turnout should not lead Democrats to “hit the panic button.” According to Duffy, successful candidates need to appeal to the more diverse electorate of the general election.

Some of the other races involving Tea Party candidates show how unreliable voter turnout in a primary can be as an indicator for how the candidates do in the general campaign. More Democrats voted in the Kentucky primary than Republicans, but Rand Paul currently has the polling lead. A similar reversal happened in Nevada where more Republicans voted in the primary, yet Reid now polls ahead.

While the Republican base is clearly energized and capable of electing more hard-line Tea Party candidates, there isn’t enough evidence to conclude that the candidates can do well in the general election. (Especially if a candidate continues to make gaffes about his opponent being unelectable because they wear high-heels.)

Even if the Republican base is more energetic in Colorado, they will face a well-funded Democratic opponent who has the backing of the White House. John A. Straayer, a political science professor at Colorado State argued that Bob Bennett was still going to give Buck a tough fight no matter how energetic the GOP base is, “Bennnet is going to be extremely well funded…it’s not going to be a 60-40 outcome for either one, it’s going to be close.”