Stupak's Hasty Retirement

The Tea Party Express is claiming victory for Bart Stupak’s recently announced retirement. While it is true that Stupak’s retirement is a boon to the Tea Party movement, political analysts offer an interesting point: Stupak would probably have won reelection.

The Tea Party Express is claiming victory for Bart Stupak’s recently announced retirement. While it is true that Stupak’s retirement is a boon to the Tea Party movement, political analysts in Michigan offer an interesting point: Stupak could still have won in November.

“I think he would have been the odds on favorite to win,” according to Chetly Zarko, the head of a Michigan based political consulting firm as well as a self-described conservative and Republican. Although Stupak was becoming a high profile target, and the opposition had “a good message to deliver” there still would have been challenges that would have kept the race in Stupak’s favor. Zarko pointed out that: “it takes money to deliver a message, it takes an organization, and it takes knowledge and skill.” Stupak's opponent, Dan Benishek, famously didn't even have a professional campaign website until several days after Stupak's healthcare vote.

Other analysts expressed a similar opinion. One felt that it would be wrong to place this resignation entirely in the context of healthcare: “I think after the death of his son, it became harder and harder for him to serve in Congress, and I think this is a culmination of a lot of things, and healthcare wasn’t the only reason.”

Tarek Baydoun, another Michigan political consultant, also pointed out that as a pro-life Democrat, Stupak was uniquely well-positioned for his district, “It’s one of those unique Michigan seats where the majority of the people are probably pro-labor and progressive on economic issues but socially conservative…it’s been difficult to find the right candidate that can navigate that political landscape.”

Noted Michigan political analyst Bill Ballenger also noted that the geography of the district would have been in Stupak's favor. Because the district is so large (covering both peninsulas that make up Michigan) and lacks a centralized media market, Ballenger describes the challenge of knocking any incumbent out of that seat as "almost impossible" adding "it would been a hellish six months, but he would have won."

It’s also an open question how successful the Tea Party opposition would have ultimately been. An analysis of their fundraising emails from Tea Party Express show that it took them nearly two weeks to raise $100,000 after aiming to do so in only one week. While Stupak’s opponent Dan Benishek was receiving a lot of outside support, he did not have name recognition in the state. While the Scott Brown example in Massachusetts shows that upsets do happen, it’s an unknown what the state of the economy would be in November, and whether it may have improved or worsened.

Ultimately this is a victory for the Tea Party movement: they avoided the risk of having to face off against Stupak on an actual ballot.