Specter's Resurgence
Republicans who hoped that Arlen Specter would go quietly were wrong. Despite the fact that more than half of Pennsylvania voters say they don't think Senator Arlen Specter deserves another term, Specter has stormed past the man that pushed him out of the Republican party in the latest Quinnipiac University poll by a margin of 49-42 percent. Specter has turned the tables quickly on Toomey, who led in most polls throughout the beginning and middle of last month (see this one from Franklin and Marshall or this one from Rasmussen )
While the poll results show that a majority don't want Specter back, they certainly have learned Specter's name in the time since he took over as Pennsylvania's Senator way back in 1980. Only 11% of voters reported not knowing enough about him to form an opinion. This is more than they can say about Toomey at this point: 65% of Pennsylvania voters reported that they didn't know enough about the candidate.
Specter is also cleaning up among female voters, sporting a 52 - 36% margin, which more than makes up for the votes that Toomey picks up via his 49 – 46% lead among male voters. The fact that 52% of Pennsylvania voters said they thought that Specter doesn't deserve another term (as opposed to 38% that do) suggests that Toomey still has eight months to close the gap in name-recognition and possibly even win the race. But don't underestimate Arlen Specter. While frustration with Washington may be high, you don't serve thirty years in the U.S. Senate without having some political skills and unless Toomey makes a strong case for himself, look for Pennsylvania voters to fall back on Arlen... again.