Specter Aftershocks

I'm told Sean Hannity is on the air announcing that Specter's defection "makes no difference." Really? Jon Chait identifies one difference the defection surely will make. Two words: card check.

Specter says he’ll still oppose EFCA [the formal name of the card check bill], but I have trouble seeing him really maintain that stance. He has to make it through a Democratic primary now. That’s very hard to do in Pennsylvania when the AFL-CIO is out for your blood.

Specter’s most likely play is to stay formally opposed to EFCA, but support a compromise along the lines of what some moderate Democrats might favor. He certainly can’t risk being the decisive anti-EFCA vote. Democrats in the Senate may be offering him institutional support in the primary, but primaries tend to be low-turnout operations, and Specter is going to have to work his way into the favor of the partisan Democratic base. Think of it this way: If you were a liberal (or pro-labor) Pennsylvania Democrat, would you vote for Specter? I wouldn’t. I’d be glad he left the GOP, but once he’s done that, he doesn’t have anything special to offer.