Socialists Can't Escape Strauss-Kahn Fallout
IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn's arrest is quite a shock for the French political class and public. Strauss-Kahn is often perceived as arrogant; he’s certainly not someone the French elite ever expected to see handcuffed. As new details emerge about the arrest, the news has already changed the dynamics of the upcoming presidential contest.
For Nicolas Sarkozy, the arrest has provided a boost: the road to reelection seems more open now than 48 hours ago. Strauss-Kahn would have been his toughest opponent, although admittedly his odds for defeating Sarko were probably not as great as many polls suggested.
Strauss-Kahn was essentially absent from domestic politics, which was very convenient for him. In 2007, Strauss-Kahn lost the Socialist primaries to Ségolène Royal, and he didn't do much to increase his standing in the party since then. Being in charge of an international institution, he couldn't, and therefore didn't have to comment on every single French political event.
It's one thing to be the most popular political personality a year ahead of an election, but quite another to maintain that standing during a campaign. Even if he had been appointed the Socialist party’s candidate, Strauss-Kahn would have had to actually campaign: deliver inspiring speeches, look nice, shake thousands of hands and collect votes one by one.
The nitty-gritty of campaigning was never Strauss-Kahn’s strong suit. The French master at this game has always been Chirac. Sarkozy isn't so bad. Strauss-Kahn though is no natural on the trail. Also, a presidential candidate must appear likable to the public. During his presidential debates, Sarkozy had to hold back when he debated Royal to avoid looking arrogant or smug. Strauss-Kahn would have had a very hard time pulling this off.
The Socialist party can still find an effective candidate and the arrest may even free some space for a dark horse. This may be one of the reasons why the Socialists have decided not to postpone the primaries. Candidates have until mid-July to declare, which doesn’t leave too much time for outsiders.
Many Socialist leaders are also silently rejoicing at Strauss-Kahn’s arrest. François Hollande, Martine Aubry, Ségolène Royal and Laurent Fabius have all lost a tough competitor. None of them has poll numbers nearly as high as Strauss-Kahn's, but if the government remains as unpopular as it has been during the last year, any candidate supported by the party stands a chance.
The arrest also poses a daily problem for the party. Socialist politicians have to support Strauss-Kahn to a certain extent because he is one of them and they don't want to look like opportunists. But at the same time, they have to remember that they are dealing with accusations of sexual assault.
The alleged victim is also a member of an ethnic minority group and so the Socialists can’t afford to look insensitive. If Strauss-Kahn's lawyers mount a defense by trying to raise questions about the accuser, it could end up backfiring on the Socialist party.
Most politicians from the conservative majority have remained careful as well and Sarkozy hasn't spoken yet, but there’s no doubt they will exploit this weakness as the case against Strauss-Kahn proceeds. Strauss-Kahn's “rock star” behavior was already an embarrassment for his party, but many were willing to overlook that so long as he was popular and stood a chance against Sarkozy. Now, he's just a problem.