Ryan Won't Disown Heritage Analysis
Today, at an event hosted by the think tank e21 and moderated by Fred Barnes, Rep. Paul Ryan defended his budget proposal. I asked Ryan about the numbers he has been using to justify his budget, in particular the economic analysis from Heritage Foundation which originally suggested his budget would bring the unemployment rate down to 2.8% in 2021. (Numbers which were roundly mocked and which Heritage has since revised upwards).
Ryan made clear that the Heritage analysis is separate from the CBO numbers. To Ryan's credit, his talking points always stay focused on what sort of cuts he wants to achieve, and he doesn't usually cite the Heritage analysis in his stump speeches yet. Yet in response to my question, he stated that Heritage’s unemployment numbers came from a “glitch” in their analysis, and cited the other analysis Heritage did:
What the Heritage analysis says is, 1 million new jobs will be created next year. About 2.5 million jobs will be created in the private sector by the 10th year. We will increase economic growth by 1.5 trillion dollars; we will increase family income.
The problem for Ryan is that it isn’t just Heritage’s unemployment analysis which is being critiqued. A prominent firm called Macroeconomic Advisers has produced its own report today critiquing the entire Heritage analysis:
We believe that the main result — that aggressive deficit reduction immediately raises GDP at unchanged interest rates — was generated by manipulating a model that would not otherwise produce this result, and that the basis for this manipulation is not supported either theoretically or empirically.
It would admittedly be very awkward for Ryan to disown Heritage since they were contracted to analyze his budget, yet this is analysis that he still touts. The conservative media has not been very harsh on the work Heritage has done and this has helped to increase the divide between mainstream economists and analysts and those who work within the conservative movement.
It also doesn’t help Ryan that his media events seem to be primarily covered by journalists from conservative publications. The event I was at was hosted by a right-leaning think tank, with a conservative moderator, and many of the reporters there I recognized as being from conservative media.
By no means did other journalists ask Ryan soft-ball questions, but given how many analysts are critiquing the Heritage work being used to help justify the Ryan budget, it’s disconcerting that more conservative journalists are not asking about it.
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