Rudy's Race to Lose
A new Siena Poll released yesterday shows that a Senate seat could still be be Rudy Giuliani's if he decides to run against sitting Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) next year.
The poll shows Giuliani up by seven points over the Democratic incumbent, 49%-42%. The survey shows little movement from November, when Giuliani led Gillibrand by six points.
Indeed, Senator Gillibrand faces a rather uphill battle should Rudy Giuliani choose to enter the field. Beyond voting preferences, Giuliani remains one of the most popular politicians in the state: his favorable/unfavorable rating stands at +22, well above Gillibrand's mediocre rating of +9. In fact, Giuliani has the highest such rating among all the politicians that Siena polled for.
Regardless, Gillibrand has substantial problems of her own. Having never run for statewide office, many New Yorkers don't yet know who she is or what she stands for. To be sure, 47% of the Siena poll respondents had neither a favorable or unfavorable impression of her, and only 30% of voters said that they would vote for her in November 2010.
Despite her troubles, the Republicans need Giuliani if they hope to win the seat back. If the former New York Mayor passes on a Senate bid, the Republican nomination looks likely to fall to three-term New York Governor George Pataki, who trails Gillibrand 46%-43% in the Siena poll despite significantly higher name identification and a +18 favorable/unfavorable rating.
This Siena survey comes in the wake of Giuliani's decision not to run for Governor just a few weeks ago.
Several New York politicians have urged Giuliani to shift his sights from Albany, NY to Washington, D.C. Among them is State Senator Dean G. Skelos, who told The New York Times that a Giuliani run for the Senate would be "great for our state".
Some have speculated that Giuliani's decision to avoid a run for the Governor's mansion may be related to his cool relationship with the new New York state Republican chairman, Edward F. Cox, who has publicly called for Giuliani to run for Senate rather than for Governor.