Rossi Winning Over Independents
The Washington state contest between incumbent Senator Patty Murray and challenger Dino Rossi provides an interesting contrast to my post yesterday on the Reid-Angle smash-up in Nevada. Both incumbents are struggling with the same dynamics (difficulty connecting with female and independent voters) despite vastly different personalities and strategies.
By way of a refresher, Reid has run a scorched-earth campaign against Angle who has been very accommodating in providing lots of raw material on issues like guns, entitlements and healthcare. The results have been disappointing for Reid who continues to see females and independent voters move toward Angle.
Washington state is not Nevada, however. Murray has adopted a tough tone with her opponent without being too aggressive which probably wouldn’t work for the “moms in tennis shoes” anyway. Mostly, her ads are soft reaffirmations of her concern for middle class families with the occasional “Dino’s in the pocket of Wall Street” negatives. Murray cares about you and your family. Dino? Not so much.
Rossi’s response ads follow the Republican playbook nationally to tie the incumbent to a bad economy and unpopular stimulus and healthcare laws. He also quietly raises the question of whether 18 years in the Senate hasn’t made Murray part of the problem in Washington. This is a bake-off compared to the vitriol pouring out of Las Vegas and Reno. Both sides know that playing too hard will lose you more than it gains among women and independent voters.
So, what difference has it made? The short answer seems to be that, at least in today’s Rasmussen Poll, Murray is losing, but more slowly than Reid. While Reid dropped 8 points among women in the past month, Murray is up 2 but at a surprisingly tepid 54 percent. She is a she, after all, and this is Washington state with a long tradition of women in senior offices dating back to Governor Dixie Lee Ray. Rossi continues to poll well among independents outpacing Murray by almost 2 to 1. Given the Democratic voter registration advantage in Washington, he’s going to need every one of those votes. My guess is that if Murray cannot find a way to increase her share of the women’s vote (or drive Rossi below the 41 percent he’s currently getting) a turnout model with lots of Republicans and independent voters is going to carry Rossi to the other Washington as a United States senator.