Reid Losing Ground to Angle
Is it game-over in Nevada? The numbers from the new Rasmussen poll of the Harry Reid-Sharron Angle race suggest that it might be.
The topline number indicates a more or less steady-state race with Reid leading by one point, 48 to 47 percent. Reid’s number in this poll is down slightly from the precarious 50 percent he got on September 1. Angle started the month at 48 and ended at 47 which sounds unremarkable except that she is the challenger and that the incumbent has thrown everything he has at her without making any headway and falling back slightly.
As usual, the really interesting data is in the crosstabs. Earlier this month, I suggested the contest for women voters was likely to be decisive and that Reid was in danger of overplaying his hand. After a month of telling Nevada women that Angle was an extremist who supported armed insurrection, an end to Social Security and Medicare, and that she wanted to deny medical treatment to children with autism, Reid’s support among likely women voters has dropped from 62 percent to 54 percent while Angle has gone from 35 percent to 41 percent. There has been an even sharper shift among independent voters. Reid began September with 50 percent of independents but ends with only 40 percent while Angle’s share has grown from 47 percent to 50 percent.
To sum up: we have a long-time incumbent senator with an immense financial advantage who has waged an aggressive campaign to paint his opponent as an extremist. This incumbent is still stuck under 50 percent of the vote among likely voters and is faced with growing disaffection among key segments of the electorate. Reid may be caught in a no-win situation. He must continue attacking to rally his base but the ads he’s using may be hurting him with women and independents. If Senator Reid seems a little blue, he probably has good reason.