Post-DREAM Act: Is Immigration Reform Dead?
The DREAM Act may have died in the Senate, but the immigration debate isn't going anywhere. Can Obama and a GOP Congress bring real reform?
The failure of the Senate to achieve cloture on the DREAM act has not ended the immigration debate. Politically, both sides will attempt to capitalize on this vote. Democrats will argue that they are the only ones who care about the Hispanic community, while Republicans will claim that they are the only ones serious about enforcement. But from a policy perspective, where might the debate go during the next Congress with Republicans running the House and a stronger GOP presence in the Senate? Even more importantly for enforcement proponents, is immigration the next policy ripe for triangulation?
FrumForum spoke to Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration studies before the DADT vote to see if proponents of tougher enforcement may expect some progress in the next two years. The policy that Krikorian was most interested in was making the E-verify system more widespread and possibly even mandatory for employers.
E-verify is an electronic database that employers can use to check the status of their employees. It allows them to verify their social security number and checks if the employee can legally work in the United States. The effect of this is that it decreases the likelihood that illegals will be able to end up on the books of their employers. Krikorian noted that at least 60% -- if not more -- of the illegal population lie and use fraudulent or stolen identification to gain employment.
Of course, without the program being mandatory, its efficacy is limited. Some states, such as Arizona, mandate its use but others do not. Some states only mandate its use for public sector employees. There are also obvious competitive disadvantages that occur if one company uses the system, while another company doesn't and continues to hire lower paying illegal workers.
Surprisingly, Krikorian suggested that he could see a situation where the push for wider E-verify use actually comes from President Obama and the Democrats. "If the President wanted to triangulate, I could see him backing mandatory E-verify as a step towards a future amnesty debate." Krikorian said that the proponents of immigration "agree in principle" to E-verify but hold it hostage to amnesty.
While not likely to happen, the strategy behind supporting DREAM to lock up Hispanic support, while also supporting E-verify could show that Democrats are "serious" on immigration. This could help them win independents; a plan that would also appeal to Democratic pollsters looking for ways to help the party rebound in 2012.
Unfortunately, the larger GOP benches in the House and Senate are unlikely to lead to any meaningful reform in legal immigration, despite the desperate need for the U.S. to modernize and set up a system to prioritize and accept high skilled immigrants, and not simply hand out citizenship through a lottery process. Krikorian remarked that this process "continues through inertia." Heather MacDonald of the Manhattan Institute also spoke to FrumForum about the difficulties in achieving reform in this part of America's immigration policy.
MacDonald suggested that a skills based system of immigration would undercut the vision of America's "Ellis Island" immigration policies. "It is somehow easier for politicians to oppose illegal immigration than to argue that the U.S. has the right to be more selective in its immigrants and that doing so is in its self-interest."
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