Portman's Senate Run: Stronger Than It Polls

Written by Noah Kristula-Green on Thursday June 24, 2010

Republicans hold high hopes for Rob Portman’s Senate candidacy in Ohio. But a recent poll showing Portman and his Democratic opponent in a dead heat has conservatives worried.

Republican Rob Portman has raised an impressive amount of money for his Ohio senate run, more money than his Democratic opponent. Yet the most recent Rasmussen poll has him tied with his opponent and the Cook Political Report lists the race as a toss-up. This might seem concerning, but analysts and race watchers contend that this is par for the course for Ohio’s election cycle, and that the real movement in poll numbers takes place after Labor Day.

The poll that has concerned some Republicans is a Rasmussen poll that shows Portman tied with his opponent, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, in a statistical dead heat with each showing 43% support. This is in spite of a massive fundraising disparity; Portman has raised $4.3 million and his opponent only has $1.48 million.

Some analysts don't think the data shows problems for Portman. Jerry Austin, an Ohio-based Democratic political consultant, points out that 10% of those polled are undecided. At this stage in the campaign, the main priority for the campaigns is improving name recognition, “the populace doesn’t know much about either one of these guys.”

One could even argue that the fact that Portman is tying with Fisher this early in the campaign is actually a good sign. Fisher is the Lt. Governor of the State, and has run in campaigns for statewide office before. Portman used to represent a House seat before serving in the White House, so his name hasn’t appeared on a ballot in years.

Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report remarked that, “Those of us inside the beltway tend to know who the former OMB director is [Portman], but it is not common knowledge among your average voter.” It could be taken as a good sign that a beltway bureaucrat like Portman is running a competitive campaign against an established politician at this stage in the election.

Ohio’s fractured media market is largely responsible for the lack of movement in this race. Duffy remarked that the election in Ohio tends to ‘start’ later when compared to races in other parts of the country. With eight major cities, multiple media markets (including markets in neighboring states) running television ads in the state is particularly expensive.

Nearly all analysts who were interviewed predicted that campaigning would pick up after Labor Day. That will be the point to pay attention to whether or not Portman’s larger war chest makes a difference in the expensive Ohio media market.

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