Polls: Dems Have Edge in NY-26

The Hill reports:

All of Washington will be watching New York on Tuesday, where a Democratic win in the special election could have national implications for the Republican Party.

The special election for former Rep. Chris Lee’s (R) seat has been cast as a referendum on the GOP’s budget proposal and given both parties a chance to test campaign themes ahead of the 2012 election.

Democrats have railed against provisions in Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) plan that would turn Medicare into a voucher-like program — and voters seem to have responded.

Polls show Democrat Kathy Hochul leading in the Republican-leaning district, although the race remains tight.

If she prevails, her victory would give Democrats a rallying cry against the Ryan plan and an issue to campaign on next year. And it would give Republicans cause to worry as the 2012 budget negotiations begin and their members look to secure reelection. Only four GOP House members voted against the Ryan plan in March.

With so much at stake, it has been all hands on deck for both sides.

The parties’ campaign committees and several outside groups have poured money into the race. National political figures from both sides of the aisle have campaigned for their respective party’s nominee.

Interest groups and party committees have spent almost $2 million on ads, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, which is tracking spending in the race. Much of that money has gone toward advertising on the Medicare issue.

Republican nominee Jane Corwin has embraced Ryan’s budget. Democrats and their allies said her stance amounts to supporting cuts to the program.

Meanwhile, Republicans have sought to cast Hochul as an ally of President Obama and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Former President Clinton was the latest to mention Medicare on Monday, bringing it up twice in a 30-second call to supporters in the district, which Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won by six percentage points in the 2008 presidential race.

“You can count on Kathy to say no to partisan politics that would end Medicare as we know it to pay for more tax cuts for multimillionaires,” Clinton said on the call, which was paid for by the Democratic National Committee.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) have made robo-calls for Corwin. Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has campaigned for her.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) insisted Monday that a loss for Corwin should not be interpreted as a vote against the Ryan budget proposal.

“No, not at all,” he said.