Poll: Tories Close to Majority

The Toronto Star reports:

The Harper Conservatives are at the threshold of a majority government as the country plunges into the fourth election campaign in seven years, according to an exclusive Toronto Star/La Presse poll.

The Angus Reid poll shows that the majority will most likely be won or lost in Ontario with a particularly pitched battle in the 905 belt around Toronto, where the Conservative have worked overtime on the reeling in the ethnic vote.

The survey of 2, 365 Canadians reveals the Conservatives are in the lead nationally with 39 per cent support, the Liberals at 25 per cent, and the New Democrats at 19 per cent. The Bloc Québécois has 10 per cent support and the Green Party 7 per cent.

“The Tories are knocking at the door of a majority,” Jaideep Mukerji, vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion, said.

Stephen Harper will visit Governor General David Johnston Saturday morning, when the 40th Parliament will be officially dissolved, setting the stage for an early May election.

Harper’s government was defeated on a historic non-confidence vote in the House of Commons Friday, after it was cited for contempt of Parliament — the first government in the history of the Commonwealth to be found in contempt.

The Angus Reid numbers haven’t moved appreciably over the past four weeks when the firm surveyed 6,000 Canadians, one of the largest sampling of public opinion in advance of a spring election. The Conservatives were at 39 per cent, the Liberals, 26 per cent, NDP, 18 per cent and the Green Party, 6 per cent.

As the campaign begins, the focus to a large degree is on the leaders and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is struggling right off the bat.

His approval rating sits at 19 per cent — about the same as Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe on a national basis. That is barely half the 37 per cent approval rating garnered by both Harper and NDP Leader Jack Layton.

“What’s worrying for Michael Ignatieff is that his image is still really quite weak, especially compared to the other leaders. He’s got the lowest approval rating of all the other leaders. Even among people who voted Liberal last time, fewer than 50 per cent approve of his performances as Opposition leader,” Mukerji said.

The Conservatives are still hobbled by the fact that only 26 per cent of voters surveyed want to see the party win a majority after five years of minority government.

“That gives the opposition some cause for optimism heading into this,” Mukerji said.

The online survey was conducted March 23-24 with a margin of error plus or minus 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.