Perry Nomination Will Alienate Young and Educated Voters

In an AP interview on Saturday, Rick Perry managed to swiftly steer into two topics – gay marriage and evolution – on which his views will likely alienate young and educated voters should he make it into the general election.

On gay marriage, Perry said  “I am for the federal marriage amendment.  And that’s about as sharp a point as I could put on it.”  The referred to federal marriage amendment would outlaw individual states – such as New York – from granting marriage licenses to gay couples.  This new statement is indeed a sharp point, and it is also a sharp contrast with Perry’s previously expressed tolerance for gay marriage as a state issue.

His shift in position also puts him on the opposite side of young voters.  According to a Gallup poll, “70 percent of those between 18 and 34” support gay marriage.  Other studies – such as this one by strong>Pew< – estimate youth support to be lower, but still in favor of gay marriage.

And as I’ve noted in the past, a study by my organization, strong>RK Research<, confirms youth hostility toward the Republican Party's opposition to gay marriage. The surveyed college students (taken as a subset of young voters), when asked to rate the Republican Party on 25 issues, gave the Party a score of 3.8 (1 – the worst, 10 – the best) on gay rights, dead last of the 25 issues.

On evolution, Perry noted that he is skeptical of the theory, and, accordingly, he appointed an evolutionary skeptic to chair the Texas State Board of Education.   This too puts him on the opposite side of most young Americans.  In 2006, Gallup reported that 43 percent – under half – of 18 to 29 year olds believed that God created humans in their present form and evolution played no part in the development of man.

Perry’s latest pronouncement also serves to reaffirm the Republican Party’s descent among the educated.  The 2008 election marked the first presidential election since polling companies started collecting data on degree holders in which voters with a college degree favored the Democratic candidate (50-48).  As for those with post graduate education, the Democrats have won this category since 1988, but the gap is spreading, and in 2008, the Democrats defeated the Republicans 58-40 (see this page for election data).

Perry’s perspective on gay marriage and evolution – if emblematic of the Republican position – will not improve the Party’s standing among the college educated.   As noted by Pew, college graduates are more likely to favor gay marriage than those without a college degree.  And the same 2006 Gallup poll on evolution showed that only 38 percent of college graduates and 25 percent of those with postgraduate education believe that evolution has played no part in man’s creation.

Policy positions should of course not be made based on simple opinion polls; rather, they should be grounded in principles and social science.  But if Rick Perry and the Republican Party are trying to capture some of the groups they struggled with in 2008 – such as young voters and educated voters – then they’re going about it the wrong way.