Obama’s Guantanamo About-Face

President Obama's promise to close Guantanamo may be a casualty of the "Arab spring."

Hypothesis: President Obama's promise to close Guantanamo is a casualty of the "Arab spring."

As Eli Lake notes in a characteristically in-depth report here, the Obama administration has transferred about 67 of 242 inherited Guantanamo detainees. The remainder come from countries to which return has been difficult, either because the countries were reluctant to accept or because the home country could not be trusted to hold the detainee securely.

Both those categories have grown bigger over the past days. Who feels confident that future Egyptian governments will securely hold detained Egyptian terrorists? Who imagines that Yemen will have the ability to do so? Big question marks hang over other regional governments, Saudi Arabia very much included - and it's Saudis themselves, or anyway Saudi investors, who are asking, if you look at the performance of the Saudi stock market since the Egyptian turmoil began on Jan. 25.

As Americans debate what is positive and what is negative in the "Arab spring," keep in mind: we measure the strength of a democracy in part by its ability to honor its obligations and support international peace and security. If it emerges that the new Arab governments will not or cannot hold detained terrorists, that would tell us something it is important to know.

And if my hypothesis about the reasons for the Obama administration's decisions are correct, the administration has decided: this important thing to know is already known.

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