Obama's Choice: Confrontation or Compromise

Going into the health summit next week, the White House is in a weak position. That gives them only two options: Try to pick up Republican support on a compromise bill or continue to push Obamacare in hopes of winning public support.

“Democrats, play hardball and force a reconciliation, ” advises journalist George Curry in the pages of the Philadelphia Inquirer. It’s the hard-edged advice offered much in opinion columns and blogs these days, as liberals come to terms with the full implications of Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts.

The problem for Democrats, though, isn’t simply in the Senate and the loss of the filibuster-proof 60 votes. Even if Obamacare could pass untouched – and it can’t – through the obscure parliamentary procedure of reconciliation, the White House faces a much bigger problem: the House Democrats.

In the Washington Examiner, editorialists Mark Tapscott and Michael Barone have been debating the latest rumor: that House Democrats are about 100 votes shy of the needed majority.

For the record, Barone isn’t fully committed to the 100 vote figure.  He does, however, believe that Democrats are well short of a majority. As he reasons:

Why are House Democratic leaders having such trouble getting the 217 votes needed for a majority (because there are vacancies now in two Democratic-held seats)? Look at it this way. Imagine you’re a Democratic congressman from a not entirely safe district. The leadership comes to you and says, We’d like you to vote for the Senate bill. Oh, and by the way, we can’t change a word in it. You’ve got to vote for the Cornhusker Hustle and the Louisiana Purchase and all that other garbage.

Going into the health summit next week, the White House is in a weak position. That gives them two options. 1) Come to the meeting with a genuine compromise, hoping to pick up Republican support. 2) Continue to push Obamacare and hope that the publicity (particularly the contrast with Republicans) will help the ailing project. With an eye on that latter option, Jay Cost has already dubbed the event “the Blair House stunt.”

There’s much time between now and next Thursday, and I’ll be blogging more about the White House and possible Democratic strategies for next week’s meeting.

But I also hope to write on what the Republican response might be, not simply in Blair House, but in the months ahead. Republicans could be on the verge of a 1994-like victory (winning both the House and the Senate) but are they also on the verge of a 1995-like mistake (doing little on the health reform issue)?