Obama Can't Stop the Coming Dem Defeat
During the 2008 U.S. Presidential election campaign I, as both a commentator and one interested in the fate of the nation (and world), found the most useful polling information to be RealClearPolitics.com.
RCP gives a clear, succinct, thumb-nail impression of the day-to-day political mood in America, and lists the findings of most of the important polling organizations.
More significant, in the 2008 election, RCP turned out to be uncannily reflective of the actual vote.
Turning to RCP for a reading of the Nov. 2 mid-term vote in the U.S. that has (according to the media) Democrats and Barack Obama writhing with apprehension, and Republicans panting with anticipation, one gets a feeling that it’s not going to be a happy time for those who favor the status quo.
Here’s a snapshot of what RCL thinks is likely to happen.
In the battle for the Senate, five states now held by Democrats (Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Washington and West Virginia) are considered “toss up” states, meaning that they are too close to call. RCP predicts the Senate will be 50-50 for Democrats and Republicans.
In five states that “lean” Republican, two (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) are represented by Democratic Senators. Of six states “likely” to vote Republican, one (Indiana) is held by a Democrat. Two states deemed to be “safe” for the Republican candidate, are now held by Democrats (Arkansas and North Dakota).
On the other hand, two states “likely” to be held by Democrats are already held by Democrats (Delaware and Oregon).
The inference is that Nov. 2 is going to be a horrible night for Obama.
As for the House in Congress, where 218 seats is a majority (Democrats now hold 256 to the Republicans’ 178), of those states being contested, 138 are considered “safe” for Democrats, 163 “safe” for Republicans, with 38 “toss-ups.” As of this writing, RCP predicts Democrats will win 186 seats, Republicans 210, with 40 too close to predict. Republicans are poised to dominate Congress.
Finally, in the contest for governor, Democrats are considered sure bets to win in 15, Republicans to win in 27, with eight in the toss-up category.
The disparity in this coming vote may seem odd when Obama is still well-liked as an individual, but his job approval rating has dropped significantly – 43% approval versus 50% disapproval.
If that doesn’t explain the surge the Republican Party is likely to get on Nov. 2, maybe Congress’ job approval rating explains why this vote looks bad for incumbents. On average, Congress has a 21.2% per cent job approval rating and 71.6% disapproval.
As for the direction in which the Obama administration is leading the country, an average of 60.5% of Americans think it’s wrong – 33% think it’s the right direction.
Small wonder there’s lust for change – and a rise of disaffected citizens who don’t want to take it anymore. These, likely, comprise the core of the Tea Party movement.
Of late, Obama is attending a lot of town hall meetings, trying to rally support for his plans. He fails to see that it’s his policies, not his persona, that is causing alarm.
So far, he’s been a man of words, more than deeds.
Yet Americans are doers. What they seem likely to do on Nov. 2, is take charge of their future and elect representatives they hope feel as they do, and put America back on track.