Not Smart to Run Against Obama
Despite 18 months of angry rhetoric, the right has still failed to win over Obama's supporters.
Running on saying ‘no’ to Obama will get Republicans nowhere. Despite all the economic trouble, the oil spill, bad news abroad etc., over the past several months Obama’s approval rating has steadily held just a tad below 50% (the RealClearPolitics average has not strayed outside the 46-50% range since last year). It’s not great, but still healthy.
Just to put things in perspective, that’s a couple points higher than McCain’s share of the popular vote. It also means that roughly 90% of Obama voters still approve of him and thus he has not yet suffered any major erosion of support. Furthermore, while some 10% of his voters are disappointed in him, virtually none of them have yet turned against him, as evidenced by the fact that the RealClearPolitics average disapproval rating of 47.1% (as of right now) just happens to be exactly the same as the percentage of Americans who voted against Obama.
Incidentally, this also means that a year and a half of angry rhetoric by Limbaugh, Beck et al. did not manage to convince anybody other than McCain voters that the Obama presidency is not good for the country. Yes, intensity matters too -- especially in midterm elections -- but the problem is that some methods of energizing the Republican base risk also energizing the Democratic base and/or turning off independents.
This brings us to another folly of trying to put Obama on the ballot figuratively (as the GOP seems keen to do). The last time he was on the ballot literally, he helped the Democrats down the ballot a lot. The Obama effect is actually easily measurable. The Senate race in Georgia was forced into a run-off. Obama was on the first ballot, but not on the second, of course. The Democrat (Jim Martin) got 46.8% with the Obama coattails and only 42.6% without them (just four weeks later). The reason for the discrepancy is much higher turnout of Democratic voters who rarely vote, especially minorities and the young. If they were to turn out again in the same numbers in 2010, the GOP would be virtually guaranteed of losing winnable Senate races in California, Washington, Nevada, Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida (giving Harry Reid a filibuster-proof majority). So why do Republicans want to run against Obama?
Unfortunately, they may yet partly get their wish. Shortly after denouncing the Civil Rights Act, Rand Paul called Obama “un-American”. That’s not a nice thing to say about anybody (who has not actually been convicted of treason, espionage or terrorism), but it’s especially toxic in the case of the first black president -- particularly when many Republicans entertain conspiracy theories about whether he is even an American, while others wish him to fail, put up billboards comparing him to Hitler, or call for impeachment. The NAACP has just adopted a resolution condemning the Tea Party for racism. And we may yet soon see (or maybe not, since Republicans tend to get blindsided by such efforts) a concerted Democratic get out the vote operation targeting black voters (and some other groups) with a narrative along the lines that “many Republicans are racists and Republican politicians pander to them; they oppose equal rights for all Americans and in fact don’t even recognize minorities as fully American; they do not recognize legitimacy of a black president; after the election they will try to impeach Obama and if they are unable to remove him from office they will at least do everything they can to make him fail and make the election of another black president impossible for a very long time.”
Republicans should start fighting such charges and potential charges right now (and yes, that includes making unequivocal statements about Obama’s citizenship, wishing for him to succeed for the sake of the country, and forswearing impeachment). But mere denial is not enough. If the Republicans are to convince anybody that they intend anything other than mere obstructionism, they have to produce some serious positive agenda.