Not All Politics is Local
Almost everybody who follows politics knows the late Tip O'Neill's famous aphorism, "All politics is local." What most folks don't know about that statement is that O'Neill wasn't describing an existing reality; he was describing a political strategy. The late House speaker was no fool. He knew that big chunks of the Democratic platform - gay rights, big spending at home, weakness and retreat abroad - were broadly unpopular with the American people. His solution: "localize" races to the extent possible. Deliver strong constituent service, bring home the bacon, be a familiar face to the home town folks. Do all those things, O'Neill believed, and no one will care how you vote in DC.
And it largely worked, for a long time. When Republicans were able to finally "nationalize" House races in 1994 and 2002, they won big. The Democrats were able to turn the trick themselves in 2006 and 2008, but with the help of an increasingly unpopular GOP administration that appeared generally incompetent and losing a war.
Now the wheel has turned again - and with astonishing speed. I lived in Massachusetts for two years around 20 years ago and, believe me, Massachusetts voters have taken more than their share of abuse since that time from a Democratic machine that has grown ever more bloated and ever more entitled. But Scott Brown's landslide victory was clearly achieved by nationalizing the race around the most unexpected issue of all: healthcare. His campaign seems to have really taken off with the Christmas Eve vote in the Senate, enabled by the Cornhusker Kickback (which has grown so unpopular that Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson now, pathetically, wants to give it back.) The attempted terrorist bombing over Detroit the next day also didn't help Coakley, who then, bizarrely, claimed there were no terrorists in Afghanistan.
But it was healthcare that did the trick. (Don't believe it? President Obama didn't even mention the subject during his Sunday speech in Boston.) Much as it pains me to agree with Barney Frank, he is almost certainly correct: Brown's victory means the end of healthcare reform as we know it. Already, it appears Evan Bayh of Indiana and Jim Webb of Virginia are signaling they will not go along with any parliamentary shenanigans to jam the bill through. There will likely be more such declarations in the days to come.
What Obama did do was attack Scott Brown's truck something like a dozen times in his speech on Sunday. I just saw a clip on Fox of John Kerry attacking the truck, too.
Truly, you can't buy political tone deafness like that. The attacks on Scott Brown's emblematic truck played into every elitist liberal stereotype there is. Roughly half the vehicles on America's roads are trucks. (Put there, it should be noted, by liberal CAFE standards that made cars smaller and smaller.) And the people who drive them vote. Who on earth dreamed up this line of attack?
A word has to be said about the tea party activists and the incredible political maturity they displayed in this race. As David Frum has written, Sen. Scott Brown is likely to disappoint many of his more conservative supporters. I suspect many of them knew that going in, however, and supported him anyway as the only person who was likely to get elected in Massachusetts. Based on these results, those who think the tea party movement will split the GOP are likely to be disappointed.
So as Scott Brown heads for Washington, all I can say is: Keep on truckin'.