Norway and the Global War on Terror

The terrible crime in Norway appears confirmed as the vicious work of a Norwegian possessed by some form of far-right politics. Thus far, the killer is reported to have acted alone, although it cannot be excluded that he belong to some small crazed local group.

As we grieve for the heart-rending losses of the families and people of Norway, it seems this crime was not the work of an international Islamist terror network.

That fact surprised many media commentators, who immediately guessed that Islamists must be to blame.

Those guesses proved wrong, not because Islamists have ceased to wish harm to the West, but because Islamists have lost almost all their ability to coordinate large-scale attacks upon Western countries.

Individuals may still grab weapons and start shooting, as happened for example at Fort Hood in November 2009. The self-radicalization of young Muslims must remain a serious security concern.

Radical Islamist plotting, however, has been all but vanquished in the Western world. The last mass-casualty Islamic terror plots carried out in Europe was the London subway attack of 2005. We have had no international terrorist attacks on US soil since 9/11.

Better police and intelligence work has intensified the difficulties facing would-be jihadists in the West. They cannot safely communicate with each other. If foreign, they find it harder to enter Western countries. If home-grown, they are are better monitored. Rising success in foiling plots deters radicals from attempting new plots.

Meanwhile, violent extremism continues to lose its appeal to young Muslims  - even as (ominously) political extremism continues to rise in Pakistan and Egypt.

The ideology of extremist Islam continues to challenge the West both from within and without. But the threat of Islamist terrorism has successfully been contained and suppressed. This is what victory in the war on terror looks like: a continuum, not an event.