New York Nine: Don't Get Too Excited

It looks like Bob Turner, a Republican, is going to walk away with the special election in New York's Ninth Congressional District. (This is the seat vacated by Anothony Weiner.) Certainly, a Republican House pickup is a cause for celebration.

It's true also that a result will, at least in part, be a referendum on the President and, in a heavily Jewish district, his policies towards Israel. But, just as victories for Democrats in two special elections for previously Republican seats during the 2008-2010 period didn't signal any Democratic pickups in the 2010 elections (quite the opposite), a Republican victory in 2011 won't necessarily foretell big Republican pickups in the 2012 elections.

Instead, there are three factors to keep in mind.

First, special elections for are unique. Because they usually are the only election going on at the time they are held, they get far more media coverage and money than they would otherwise. In a less media-heavy environment, it's probable that Dede Scozzafava could have simply coasted to victory in 2009's special election in New York's heavily Republican 23rd district if relentless media attention hadn't revealed that she was both prone to gaffes and, ideologically, almost indistinguishable from the Democrat she eventually endorsed after dropping out of the race.

Second--as a corollary to the first point--individual candidates matter far more when there is only one race on the ballot. In general elections, candidates benefit from their parties' own mass mobilizations. In special elections, the quality of the candidates themselves matters a lot more. Scott Brown won his Massachusetts Senate race in large part because he was a much better candidate--smarter, less prone to gaffes, more principled--than Democrat Martha Coakley. In a general election year these things would have mattered a lot less and Coakley might possibly have won simply because Massachusetts' Democratic Party is so powerful.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Weiner's own scandal obviously has an impact. Even though he isn't on the ballot, voters are obviously going to have been turned off by his antics and what he represents. At least some voters will probably pull the R lever for that reason alone.

Bottom line: A Republican pickup in New York ninth district is good news for sure. But, like most special elections, it can't really be considered a bellwether.