New Year, Old Problems
As 2010 begins, it isn’t a hell of a lot different from how 2009 began, despite a new president who got elected on the promise of “change.”
The world problems that beset the new year are the ones that plagued the old year.
Barack Obama isn’t George Bush, but the problems are the same. Styles are different, results similar. Rhetoric is more upscale, apologies (deserved or fabricated) are forthcoming, but it’s still the same old, same old, for the U.S.
Consider: North Korea is still a menace that starves its people; Iran still lies about its nuclear intentions; America is still at war; Osama bin Laden is still hiding in a cave; Arabs still hate Israel; Guantanamo is still there; the recession continues, unabated.
So how is 2010 likely to unfold? None of us knows, but all of us can guess.
President Obama promises to start withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan by July 2011, so it’s a fair bet 2010 is going to be a year of intense fighting and redoubled efforts to curtail the Taliban and capture or kill Osama.
This means Canadian troops will likely be on the cutting edge. By this time next year it should be clearer whether Afghanistan can be won, or is a lost cause.
Canada’s economy will continue to improve in 2010 (thanks largely to our banking system) and the U.S. should be economically healthier, if only because Americans are the most resourceful, dynamic, undaunted people on earth.
As financial systems go, so goes the economy. In this recession, Canada is more blessed than most, because of our healthy banking system. This may be Stephen Harper’s greatest asset in what looks to be an election year.
In the U.S., Obama’s popularity is likely to continue to sag if he continues to govern by rhetoric instead of accomplishments. Instead of boosting confidence in America, he sometimes seems to undermine it.
The demoralized Republican Party will be increasingly seen as the party of hope. If they’re smart (an uncertainty) they’ll seek to harness the Sarah Palin faction with mainstream Republicans – unlike Democrats whose party is split between the leftist nutbars and moderate liberals.
In Canada, Stephen Harper is as lucky as Jean Chretien was in the 1990s with a fractured conservative opposition. Michael Ignatieff as Liberal leader is Harper’s best chance for a majority government.
Like the groundhog, Tiger Woods will emerge from seclusion to compete in a major golf tournament – and lose, because elements in the crowd will heckle him and he’ll lose his concentration as well as his temper. The Washington Capitals will make the Stanley Cup finals; Russia will win Olympic gold in hockey (Ovechkin and Malkin); the Phillies will win the World Series (Roy Halladay); Agoes will reach the Grey Cup if they hire Doug Flute as coach.
With luck, North Korea’s Kim Jong Il will join his dad in a mausoleum and his son, Kim Jong Un, will inherit a military coup. Iran’s internal civil war will drag on, unless the Israelis unite the country by attacking its nuclear sites.
Except for refugees who regard it as the safest, most desirable haven on earth, America will continue to be resented by large parts of the world. Canada will be second choice for those can’t make it to America.