NATO Troops Will be in Afghanistan Until 2014
The Daily Beast reports:
The secret date for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan has been hiding in plain sight for months. It's certainly not the much ballyhooed July 2011 date, which will only begin withdrawals. It's not even July 2012 to smooth President Obama's reelection campaign. It's the end of 2014. The plan, NATO diplomats say, is for NATO leaders to formally announce this date at their Lisbon summit on November 19-20. Their thinking is to do this soon to reassure worried, friendly Afghans, to signal resolution to the Taliban, and to use their allied unity for political cushioning at home. NATO emissaries are still bargaining over exactly how many troops will remain after departure day and for what purposes. Details aside, the devastating truth is that U.S. forces will be fighting in Afghanistan for at least four more years.
Most of the players on America's side of the Afghan war are content with this date, but the Taliban and most Democrats won't be. Savor the explanations for these preferences.
Of course, President Hamid Karzai loves the extra life support he himself first proposed. Without it, he would soon be seeking a chateau in Switzerland. With it, he can hope. President Obama can swallow the four-year breather because it takes him beyond the next presidential election without his being accused of cutting and running. The NATO endorsement provides him with allied cover to fend off opposition from his fellow Democrats. General David Petraeus, NATO commander in Afghanistan, cherishes the extra time to prove that his counterinsurgency strategy can work in Afghanistan as it did in Iraq. Conservatives and hawks will rejoice because our troops can continue to fight for "victory," whatever the Taliban, the Democrats, and the majority of Americans say.
Most assuredly, the Taliban won't be celebrating the 2014 date because it virtually guarantees four more years of being chewed up by formidable American firepower. They can escape this only by going away and trying to hide. They are right to worry. As for Democrats, they will be livid at the added cost in lives and treasure for a cause that makes little strategic sense to them. And they, too, are right.
The Obama administration and its NATO allies simply have not given convincing answers to two strategic questions. First, what will be accomplished by "defeating" the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan when terrorists bases now dot the global landscape? In other words, beating the bad guys in Afghanistan (and no one disputes they are very bad guys) won't mean the downfall or even the severe weakening of terrorism worldwide. Whatever happens in Afghanistan, terrorists will still be able to operate from Pakistan, Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, London, Jersey City, etc. Second, what effect will winning or losing in Afghanistan have on Pakistan? Washington insists that Pakistan's fate hinges on the outcome in Afghanistan, but if that's so, why do the Pakistanis continue to provide the Taliban with sanctuary and arms even as they urge us to fight on in Afghanistan? It's hard to believe that Pakistan, a barely viable country of 180 million Muslims of very different stripes, will rise or fall on the fate of their far less potent neighbor.
