Is Mubarak Toast?

Mubarak's speech promising to step down in September has only intensified the protests in Egypt.

No matter how one wants to interpret it, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt is toast.

It’s no longer a question of replacing him, it’s one of getting rid of him and his regime. What confirms that he has to go, was his extraordinary speech to the nation, assuring them that he would not seek re-election in September.

September? That’s seven to eight months away! Not good enough, Hosni. After 30 years of his rule, Egyptians (and others) are fed up and want him and his regime outta there. Shortages of bread and food and an abundance of misery notwithstanding.

And forget all that nonsense about Egyptians seeking democracy after all these years of dictatorship. Whoever, or whatever replaces Mubarak is unlikely to be any more democratic than his regime, and quite likely to be a hell of a lot more repressive and dictatorial.

Just a few days ago, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was echoing President Barack Obama’s insistence that the Egyptian army treat street demonstrators gently, and that demonstrators behave peacefully and not provoke violence.

Who do this pair think they are kidding?

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon simply ignores the growing violence – much of it vigilante snipers and strong-armed police.

Almost instantly the death toll on the streets of Cairo zoomed to 300 and rising. We are told thousands, maybe a million, are flooding into Cairo – not to peacefully demonstrate, but to ensure Mubarak is toast.

The great myth of revolutions or rebellions, is that the people react against oppression. Historically, it isn’t true. Historically, slaves do not revolt. People rebel when a repressive regime eases the repression – witness places like South Africa, Rhodesia, Colonial India, Greece under the colonels, even modern Russia.

In China, no one rebels – or if (when) they do, it’s over quickly, mercilessly. In Stalin’s Soviet Union, a public protest was suicide. Endless repression is wearisome to everyone, even the repressors, who eventually slacken – and become vulnerable.

News reports from Cairo tell us demonstrators are now turning against journalists – even raiding the press center. That, too, is symptomatic of the madness that can grip a beleaguered society.

In the 1967 war with Israel, a wildfire rumor started that Israeli prisoners were arriving at the central railroad station. I and a bunch of journalists raced to the station to see the PoWs, only to be met by a harassed and frightened young Egyptian officer who insisted there were no Israel prisoners, but the crowd wasn’t listening and screamed for blood.

When we tried to leave, a shout went up that we were the Israelis. The mob began pummeling us. We didn’t dare show that punches had any effect, until suddenly a middle-aged Egyptian hurled himself in front of me and yelled at the mob that these were not Israelis, but foreign journalists.

There was a pause, and we made our escape, but the good samaritan was being pummeled in our stead. An ugly moment, but typical when the mob is in full throat and seeks any target -- which is Cairo today.

There’s no predicting the outcome – except that whatever happens, the U.S. will seek to mend fences with whoever is in charge. And that means money. Meanwhile the imponderable is Israel, which is unlikely to be a passive onlooker.

Cairo may be the first of a set of falling Arab dominoes.

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