More Senate Races Now in Play
Chris Cillizza writes that a lot more Senate races are now competitive:
As we sat down to rank which ten Senate races are most likely to flip party control on November 2, it became immediately clear that our Line wasn't big enough.
The simple truth is that over the past six to nine months, the Senate playing field has expanded to the point where there are now (at least) 15 races where a party switch is a real possibility -- if not a probability.
Most of that expansion has benefited Republicans, who have effectively taken advantage of a national playing field tilted in their favor to take previously non-competitive races like Washington and Wisconsin and put them on the target list.
Democrats have a few more opportunities as well -- most notably in Kentucky where ophthalmologist Rand Paul's (R) uneven campaign has created an opening for state Attorney General Jack Conway. (An independent poll released Thursday showed the two in a statistical dead heat.)
All told, the Cook Political Report now rates a whopping 18 races as either likely to switch, leaning switch or straight tossups. The Rothenberg Political Report ranks 15 races with the potential to switch sides.
With all of that in mind, we are expanding the Senate Line from 10 to 15 races in an attempt to bring Fixistas the most accurate picture of the competitive contests this fall. (And, even in the expanded Line some real races like New Hampshire's open seat or Louisiana Sen. David Vitter's re-election race don't make the cut.)
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