Miller Dropping in Polls
The Mudflats reports:
A new poll conducted by Hays Research confirms what we already intuitively know. Alaska U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller’s candidacy is in big trouble.
The percentage of those who feel either “somewhat negative” or “very negative” about Miller has skyrocketed in recent weeks to an unbelievable 68%. Only 8% feel “somewhat negative” and the remainder, a jaw-dropping 60%, feel “very negative” about Miller as a candidate.
A series of gaffes, inconsistencies, and controversial statements to the press, in addition to the arrest of a journalist by Miller security guards have come one on top of another, causing a trend that can only be described as a campaign death spiral. Miller’s hard-core supporters who view him very favorably have held in there, showing a decrease of only 3% since October 6, but his “somewhat favorable” rating went from 20% to 9% in that time. Miller’s “somewhat unfavorable” rating dipped from 13% to 8%, underscoring the voter stampede toward “very unfavorable” which skyrocketed from 38% to 60% in less than three weeks. ...
This all begs the question, if Miller is hemorrhaging voters, where are they going? The numbers bear out the anti-incumbency sentiment, and voter frustration with the ‘establishment’, because Miller’s supporters seem to be jumping ship mostly for McAdams.
Hays asked the question,(replicating the experience of the voter going in to the booth in which they will not see the name of write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski on the ballot) “If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Joe Miller, Scott McAdams, Frederick Haase, Tim Carter, Ted Gianoutsos, or another candidate you have to write in, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?
The result? Scott McAdams surging ahead of Joe Miller with 29%, Joe Miller with 23%, and the write-in candidate (most of which are presumably Lisa Murkowski) with a small gain bringing her to 34%, and undecided voters still at 13%. This is the first time that McAdams has polled better than Miller, and he did it by six points, comfortably outside the margin of error of 4.8% – a watershed moment for the McAdams campaign.
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