Merkel's Party Loses Important Election

The New York Times reports:

BERLIN — In an astonishing shift in German politics, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats on Sunday seemed headed for a major defeat in a historic stronghold in southwestern Germany, where the Green party appeared poised to head a state government for the first time, according to projections based on preliminary vote counts.

The nuclear calamity in Japan and Mrs. Merkel’s subsequent reversal on nuclear power were thought to have played a key role in the elections in Baden-Württemberg, where the Christian Democrats have governed since 1953, before Mrs. Merkel, 56, was born.

Germans have a deep-seated aversion to nuclear power, and the damage at Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan has galvanized opposition. On Saturday, more than 200,000 people took to the streets of four big German cities to protest against nuclear power. The news from Japan of soaring radiation levels led every radio and television newscast on Sunday.

After the catastrophe in Japan, Mrs. Merkel reversed a pro-nuclear policy adopted just last year and shut down temporarily seven of Germany’s 17 nuclear plants. She apparently did not persuade voters.

If confirmed, the results would constitute the biggest blow to Mrs. Merkel since she became chancellor in 2005.

At Christian Democrat headquarters in Berlin, there was shock as the vote projections were announced. “This is very painful for us,” said Annette Schavan, federal education and science minister.

Across town, the Greens’ headquarters erupted in jubilation over their projected 25 percent of the vote. Winfried Kretschmann, 62, who now stands to head a Green-led coalition in Baden-Württemberg, spoke of “a historic change.”

According to the vote projections, the Christian Democrats won the most votes — around 39 percent, down from 44.2 percent in 2006. Yet the weak showing of the Free Democrats, the pro-business party with which Mrs. Merkel governs nationally, left the conservatives no hope of forming the next state government.

The Free Democrats looked likely to squeak in to the state Legislature with just 5 percent of the vote, the minimum required. In 2006, they got 10.7 percent.

If the polls are confirmed, the Greens are in a comfortable position to head the a coalition with the Social Democrats in Baden-Württemberg, which has some 11 million inhabitants and is among the most prosperous and successful of Germany’s 16 states.

The Greens were projected to win 24.8 percent of the vote, compared with 11.7 percent in 2006. The Social Democrats were forecast to garner 23.5 percent of the votes, little changed from 2006.

“If the results are confirmed, then this is a major breakthrough for the Greens,” said Nils Diederich, political science professor at the Free University in Berlin.

“And it is huge blow to the chancellor,” he added. “For the Greens, the big question is whether such success can be sustained on the federal level. Its opposition to nuclear energy and its environmental policies really did galvanize its support.”