McDonnell's Virginia Turnaround
Although the midterms are months away, the news of Virginia's $220 million budget surplus will boost state Republicans in close races.
In 2008 and 2009, Virginia was called a “bellwether state” by numerous political pundits. The recent news that Virginia has a budget surplus of at least $220 million should be good news for the Republican “Young Guns” competing in several competitive districts throughout the Commonwealth. Four current Democrat-held seats in Virginia will be races to watch in the climb toward a possible Republican House majority. Congressmen Glenn Nye (VA-02); Tom Perriello (VA-05); Rick Boucher (VA-09); and Gerry Connolly (VA-11) will all face tough races this year from an enthusiastic slate of Republican candidates. What could the news mean for these competitive races? Well, on its own, news about a budget surplus is just that, news of a budget surplus. However, 2010 is not just any midterm election and voter fear and anger over government mismanagement, waste, and inefficiency has reached an all time high.
House Minority Whip and Virginia Congressman Eric Cantor issued a statement on Wednesday praising Governor McDonnell and urging President Obama to “look at the example set by Virginia.” While this would only make sense considering Cantor’s Virginia ties, it also represents a move by Republican candidates to paint their Democratic opponents as fiscal reprobates, leading our country into economic ruin. The contrast between Virginia boasting a surplus, one of only a handful of states to do so, and the bloated federal government will be prime fodder in the four most competitive Virginia House races.
The surplus will provide a boost to institutions considered valuable by voters including returned revenue to local school districts as well as an automatic increase in dollars for Virginia’s Water Quality Fund. The Water Quality Fund provides assistance to the efforts to clean Chesapeake Bay—a major boon for the Virginia 2nd Congressional District which features a heavily competitive race between first-term incumbent Democrat Glenn Nye and Republican candidate Scott Rigell. State Senator Robert Hurt of the Virginia 5th, Keith Fimian of the Virginia 11th, and State Delegate Morgan Griffith of the Virginia 9th will all employ this example of tough fiscal discipline as a record they would like to replicate in Washington. Hurt and Griffith in particular, due to their positions as state legislators, will likely tout their roles in creating General Assembly support for the budget compromise that led to this surplus and balanced budget.
Another outcome of the surplus will be a 3% December bonus for Virginia state employees. Some have complained about state employees receiving a bonus when other areas of state government could use restored funds. According to one source, the McDonnell administration has argued that they have a surplus thanks in part to budget language which provided that agencies receiving cuts could be given a bonus at the end of the year. The language stipulated that in the event a certain amount of state dollars were returned to the treasury by June 30, all state employees would get a bonus. This encouraged agencies to conserve money and avoid the rush to spend all appropriated funds regardless of need, yielding an innovative incentive program.
Though the November elections are still nearly four months away, any good news out of Richmond can help provide a shot in the arm to candidates in these four races. Virginia has always boasted a strong independent streak and tendency toward mixed government (see previous gubernatorial races). If that trend holds, then don’t be surprised to see at least two of these districts electing new Republican congressmen.