Mapping the Path to a Tory Victory
It's clear the Tories will form the largest party in Parliament. The early results from key seats though will reveal whether the Conservatives will be able to govern as a one-party majority or need the support of other parties.
It's pretty clear now that the Tories will form the largest party in Parliament and the only question is whether they will form a one-party majority, rely on minor parties like the Northern Irish Unionists, or be shy enough of a majority that the Lib Dems become kingmakers. While the election itself won't be finally settled until around midnight Eastern time, one can get a glimpse of the trends by looking at the returns from the early marginal seats.
The UK Press Association has published a list of when each constituency is expected to declare its results.
I went through this last night and came up with a list of marginals that bear watching between 6pm Eastern, when the first results are expected, and 10pm, when the bulk of returns start pouring in.
The first two marginals to watch for are Birmingham Edgbaston and Battersea, both expected to report before 8pm. The Tories should win each easily (if they don't win both, they're toast), but the question here is the margin. To win a bare majority, the Tories need about a 7 percent swing from 2005, or a 14 point shift on the margin. Since all the polls of Scotland are showing no swing at all this means they will need about a 7.5 percent swing in England and Wales to get to the 326 seats needed to govern without aid.
For these marginals, then, look to see if the Tory leads over Labour are in double digits. Labour won BE by 4 and Battersea by 1; to be on course for a majority, the Tories need to win them by 11 and 14, respectively.
We then quickly move to the first indications of whether the Tories can sustain such switches. Ladbroke's, which predicts the winners in all 650 constituencies, lists four marginals the Tories need which will be declared between 8 and 8:30 - Leeds North East, Telford, Tooting and Vale of Clwyd (Welsh seat). The Labour lead in 05 ranged from 12 (Tooting) to 16 (Leeds). The Tories need all of these seats to be on track for a majority. If they lose two, especially if any losses are by more than a point or two, its a sign that Cameron will not be close to the level he will need to govern alone.
Next on tap are the seats declaring between 8:30 and 9. Here we have another hard marginal (Ipswich, Lab won 43-31) and a three way marginal which the Tories should win, Pendle (37-32-23). For those assessing LD strength, there are two seats they should win from Labour, City of Durham and Rochdale. If the LDs also pick up New Forest East (43 Lab, 32 LD), it's a sign they can grab many more seats from Labour throughout the night.
Seats declarations start to pick up between 9 and 9:30pm. Easy marginals for the Tories to take, where the margin is what matters, include: Rossendale & Darwin (43-35) and Stourbridge (42-39). Again, to see how Cameron is doing subtract the '05 Lab margin from 15. If the Tories are at or above that number, it's good for them. If they are more than a point below it, it's bad.
We also have a brace of hard marginals. Again, the Tories need almost every one of these if they are to govern alone or with the DUP: Amber Valley (47-34); Basildon & Billericay (46-35); Dudley North (43-31); Dudley South (44-35); Halesowen & Rowley Regis (47-34); Warwickshire North (47-32). There's one other seat the Tories need, Wyre Forest, which has been held by an independent who opposed the proposed closure of the Kindminster Hospital in '01. In '05, he had 39 to the Tories' 29 and Labour's 23.
If the Tories win Angus, one of their few Scottish targets and currently held by the SNP (34-30), it's gravy.
We also have the first test of LD strength against the Tories. Ladbroke's predicts the Tories will lose only one seat to the LDs, Eastbourne (43 C, 42 LD in '05). They cannot lose any more seats to the LDs if they are to govern on terms they desire.
So, watch Guildford carefully. It was essentially a tie in '05 between the Tories and LDs (43-43); if the LDs win, look at their margin. There are a number of Tory-held seats where the LDs are within 6 points on 05 notional returns; Guildford is an indicator of whether those seats might be at risk later in the evening.
On the flip side, perennial Tory target Torbay (LDs, 42-36) will declare in this tranche. If the Tories win this or Eastleigh (LD 38, C 37, Lab 21), this is a very good sign indeed for Cameron.
Even more seats come through between 9:30 and 10pm. At the end of this, we should have a very good idea what kind of night we are looking at.
Easy Tory gains, look at the margin, are: Aberconwy (33-29-19 LD, 14 PC - Wales); Blackpool Noth & Cleveleys (46-37); Bristol North West (38-33-25, Wales); Cardiff North (39-37, Wales); Dartford (43-41); Harlow (41-41); Swindon North (45-39); Swindon South (40-37); Vale of Glamorgan (41-37, Wales).
Hard Tory marginals are: Gedling (47-37); Renfrewshire East (44-30, Scotland); Stirling (36-25-21, Scotland) and Wirral South (43-33).
Seats the Tories could lose to the LDs include Solihull (40-39-16 Lab) and Taunton Deane (44-41). They need both to get close to a majority.
Seats the Tories should hold but which massive tactical voting by Labour voters could swing to the LDs are: Norfolk South (44 C, 31 LD, 22 Lab); Wantage (43-28-24); Suffolk South (42-28-25); Cambridgeshire South (47-28-20) and Cambridgeshire South East (47-32-21).
If the Tories have won all or almost all of the easy and hard marginals, and have not lost any seats to the LDs, then a Cameron majority or near-majority is likely. The farther the Tories are from that, the worse off they are likely to be.
130 seats expect to be declared between 10 and 10:30pm and another 198 between 10:30 and 11:30pm, 57 of which are marginals the Tories need to win most of to come out on top.