Kirk's Unforced Errors Multiply
A new Rasmussen poll finds that despite his miserable campaign performance, Mark Kirk still clings to a narrow lead over Dem challenger Alexi Giannoulias. Given the scope of Kirk’s errors though, things could be worse.
A new Rasmussen poll finds that despite his miserable campaign performance, Mark Kirk still clings to a narrow lead over Alexi Giannoulias. Given the scope of Kirk’s errors, it could be worse, but for now the race is in a dead heat. Rasmussen finds Kirk leading Giannoulias by a margin of 42-39%. 7% of voters would prefer another candidate entirely and 12% are undecided.
On paper, the numbers do not tell us a whole lot and all not really that different from Rasmussen’s post-primary numbers, which showed Kirk ahead 46-40%. That Giannoulias’ numbers have not really changed significantly since the primary date despite a barrage of awful press focusing on the seizure of his family’s bank speaks less to Giannoulias’ skill and more to a Kirk campaign that has been unable to take advantage of a huge fundraising advantage and Giannoulias’ obvious weaknesses. Kirk’s failure to immediately address the questions related to his military record allowed the story to linger in the press to the point where it effectively negated any electoral advantage they gained from the failure of Giannoulias’ bank.
Everyone, Kirk’s camp included, may have overestimated the importance that Broadway Bank’s failure was going to play in the election. Giannoulias’ signature weakness was and remains his connection to the Illinois Democratic establishment that produced Rod Blogojevich and through which Giannoulias connected with convicted felon Tony Rezko. This has not changed, nor has the fact that Mark Kirk should win this race. Kirk gets a gift from the heavens this week as Rod Blagojevich’s trial has begun and not only is Blagojevich planning to take the stand, but one of the state’s witnesses against Blogojevich is reportedly none other than Tony Rezko himself.
The Blagojevich trial is particularly important for Kirk not so much for what may be uncovered but in the fact that it will be covered. For Giannoulias to win, he needs to win big in Chicago to offset the votes Kirk will get downstate. Blagojevich’s trial will be page one news in the Windy City throughout its duration, serving as a reminder of the Illinois politics that Giannoulias is connected to. Further hurting Giannoulias is the fact that Mark Kirk may have convinced Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. to not endorse Giannoulias. Jackson’s refusal to endorse the candidate denies Giannoulias access to his formidable political resources in Chicago’s inner city. Kirk already possesses a huge fundraising advantage, and the Jackson snub will force Giannoulias to spend valuable money trying to win the inner city votes the campaign probably expected Jackson to deliver for free.
Rasmussen has Kirk winning independents by a 50%-24% margin, which is positive. If the campaign makes a few decent ad buys and does not put its foot in its mouth, then Kirk should win and become a much needed moderate Republican leader for years to come. But the unforced errors need to stop. Kirk needs to get back to the basics: jobs and Blago. Nothing more, nothing less.