Kirk Ready for Primary
Congressman Mark Kirk is poised to become the Republican nominee for what is certain to become one of, if not the most high profile Senate races of the 2010 midterms. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Republican primary voters shows Kirk ahead of his main competitor, Illinois attorney Patrick Hughes, by a very comfortable margin of 53% to 18%. 12% of respondents reported that they prefer another candidate, while 18% say they remain undecided.
Despite some pressure from the right, 51% of conservative Republicans who plan to vote on Tuesday support Kirk versus 20% who are for Hughes. In other words, come Tuesday, Mark Kirk will be the Republican nominee.
This should be a relief for Republicans, but the primary fight is only the beginning. Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias will probably be the Democratic nominee. Giannoulias will be tough to beat. Rasmussen Reports polling from December showed Giannoulias ahead of Kirk 42% to 39%. In October those numbers were a dead heat. August showed Kirk ahead 41% to 38%. But recent Public Policy Polling statistics show that Kirk and the GOP have a lot of ground to make up if it is to have a chance to take back the President's old Senate seat. Public Policy Polling has Giannoulias leading Kirk 42-34, a substantial shift from the dead heat the Public Policy showed in April, when the two were tied at 35. The source of the shift, according to Public Policy, is that Giannoulias is doing better among Democrats. Back in April, Giannoulias was winning 60% of the Democratic voters. That number has since improved to 72%. According to PPP, Giannoulias leads 72-7 among Dems while Kirk dominates the Republicans 76-5. The key demographic group in this race is independents. PPP has Kirk leading this demographic, but, as PPP notes, it is nearly impossible for a Republican to win stateside in Illinois without scoring a double digit victory among independents as well as a double digit level of crossover support. All of this simply goes to show that Kirk still has an uphill battle.
The race will be all the more difficult because the Democrats are not sleeping on Mark Kirk. Pundits will draw parallels between the Illinois race and the Massachusetts upset, since both feature (or featured) moderate, charismatic candidates vying for victory in traditionally Democratic strongholds. But there are important differences. In Massachusetts, the Democrats slept on Scott Brown and ran an incredibly inept and unlikeable candidate. In Illinois, Democrats long ago identified Kirk as a potential threat and have already begun work to combat a Republican victory. And unlike Martha Coakley, Giannoulias is a talented, articulate candidate that will actively court independents, rather them drive them away.
On Tuesday, the battle for the independents begins.