Just Wait Until 2012

Looking ahead to 2012, the one thing we can be sure of is that, just as in this year, the pundits and experts will end up being surprised.

Two years ago -- four years since the creation of the permanent Republican majority and following a second consecutive drubbing at the hands of Democrats -- it was difficult to avoid succumbing to the more dire statements by Democrats predicting the new permanent Democratic majority.

But shortly after Obama’s inauguration, I heard a conversation that lifted my spirits.  A 22-year old Washington hand informed me that Republicans were at their lowest point since after Watergate and would take years to recover.  At that point, when it became clear that Carvillean conventional wisdom about the end-days for the GOP had trickled down to the staff assistant level, I was reminded of what I should have never forgotten.

The beginning of wisdom is the recognition of what you don’t know, and the professional prognosticator rarely bears the humility that is required for effective analysis.

In that spirit, a few thoughts on the election.

Cornyn for President

At the end of the 2006 and 2008 cycles, folks talked as though Rahm Emanuel and Chuck Schumer had cracked the code.  They hadn’t.  Is Robert Menendez any less of a DSCC chairman than his predecessor?  Is John Cornyn any more effective than John Ensign was at the NRSC?  Marginally.  At best.  The fact is, the campaign chairmen are at the mercy of the cycle.  In close races, the genius of the chairmen and their staff might carry the day.  Then again, you could lose Montana by 3,600 votes and Virginia by 9,000 out of 2.3 million cast.

Pataki for President

I shouldn’t single out John Cornyn for a hard time.  One could foresee him making it through the Republican primary and becoming president.  Can the same be said for George Pataki and Haley Barbour, both of whom are mulling bids, Barbour principally on the ground that he was so successful at the Republican Governor’s Association (see “Cornyn for President” and “Nick Ayers for RNC Chair”), and George Pataki because...?  Never overestimate the capacity of a paid professional to convince his client that his is just the leadership America is clamoring for.

Just Wait Until 2012 (Senate Edition)

The same folks who told us in January 2009 that this cycle would follow the pattern of ruin set in 2006 and 2008 -- the same folks who told us the GOP had to defend seats in hostile territory like Ohio, Missouri, and New Hampshire -- are now reminding us that the Democratic wave class of 2006 will be extremely vulnerable in 2012.  Perhaps.  Two years is a long time.

Just Wait Until 2012 (Presidential Edition)

Who knows what will happen in 2012.  There are some numbers worth considering, however, that might dampen Democrats’ enthusiasm for an Obama comeback.  According to an estimate by Election Data Services, the following states will gain House seats and electoral votes:   Texas (4), Florida (2), Arizona (1), Georgia (1), Nevada (1), South Carolina (1), Utah (1), and Washington.  The states that would lose seats include New York (2), Illinois (1), Iowa (1), Louisiana (1), Massachusetts (1), Michigan (1), Missouri (1), and Pennsylvania (1).  By my count, that is a swing of about 15 electoral votes toward the GOP.

To put that in perspective, it is the equivalent of giving New Jersey, or a combination of Colorado and Oregon to the Republicans in the 2008 presidential election.  To put that into further perspective, John McCain won 173 electoral votes.  I do know that Obama is not likely to win any states in 2012 that McCain won in 2008.  And I do know that he will have a hard time holding Nevada (5 EV), Indiana (11 EV), Virginia (13 EV), and North Carolina (15 EV), all of which are traditionally Republican states.  Give the Republican candidate Florida (27) and Ohio (20) where the GOP is poised to demolish Democrats tonight, the one-off Obama wins, and the votes courtesy of reapportionment and the GOP is sitting pretty with a win of 279 electoral votes.  The Republican path to victory won’t have to go through Democratic friendly states like New Mexico and Iowa, as Bush’s reelect did, to make Obama a one-termer.

One, Two, Many Tea Parties

For all the talk about the non-professionalism of the Tea Party candidates, most of these candidates did not come from an apolitical background.  Sharron Angle was a member of the Nevada assembly.  Rand Paul has certainly benefitted from the contacts and name recognition provided by his career politician father.  Ken Buck was a district attorney and worked in the U.S. Attorney’s office.  Joe Miller was a judge and politically active citizen.  And of course, Christine O’Donnell is no stranger to politics and running for office.

The same cannot be said of Ron Johnson, however.  He truly is the citizen candidate, a businessman who had his Howard Beale moment when Congress passed the healthcare bill.  And he is set to knock off Russ Feingold.  Three months ago nobody had Feingold on their watch list.  The seat was considered lost to Republicans when they failed to attract the ‘top tier candidate’ Tommy Thompson.  Today, Feingold’s candidacy has been written off.

Exit question one:  Would Thompson have won?  I doubt it.

Exit question two:  Will the GOP do any work to see why it is that the big businesswomen in CA lost, while the small businessman in WI won?  What attributes does a person with a small business mentality bring to a race?

What Will They Do When They Get There

In the last few weeks, I have heard a variant of the following several times.  All this populist rhetoric neglects that in some sense we want and need elites.  If I need a dentist, I go to the best dentist.  And if I need a good lawyer, I go to the best lawyer. This is a good lead-up, but interestingly this argument usually tails off before the obvious punch line.

And if I want a person who can pass a bunch of laws, I will pick a person extremely qualified to be a legislator.

The best example of this insight was Patrick Leahy’s recent statement that after 1980, a similar election cycle, “[i]t was a very weird time...A lot of those people had no idea what they were doing.”

But what, pray tell, were they supposed to be doing?  Holding fundraisers?  Arranging cover votes to fool their constituents back home into thinking they are economically conservative (see Kent Conrad and Ben Nelson).

There is a reason that nobody finishes the joke.  Most Americans don’t elect legislators to add to the U.S. Code.  They elect representatives to REPRESENT them.

What’s the Matter with Wisconsin?

In 2006 and 2008 we read story after story about GOP decline in traditional strongholds and the rise of the purple states.  I look forward to the analysis of Wisconsin’s transition from a blue to a magenta state.

What’s the matter with Wisconsin?

They’re probably just racists.

Which Brings Me to My Final Point

The perspective that Democrats have brought to the last few weeks of this campaign does not bode well for Jon Stewart’s pro-reason project.  Unable to tackle the possibility that the electorate just doesn’t like the stimulus bill, Democrats have psychologically latched on, as they always do, to the incurable social and emotional retardation of the electorate as the cause of their demise.

Just wait until 2012.  The big gun was relatively quiet in 2008 due to the public enthusiasm for, and goodwill toward, Obama.  Plus, by this time in the cycle a win was certain.  But is there any doubt that high profile Democrats will transform today’s argument for Republican motivations into a bald assertion of racism in 2012?  It is the predictable last refuge of the liberal Democrat.

And is there any doubt that the impact of this entirely predictable line of attack will be a net negative for the Obama candidacy?