Arizona's Comeback Kid
Earlier this year, JD Hayworth looked likely to pull off an upset and unseat John McCain. Now, with primary day a month away, McCain holds a commanding 20 point lead.
Earlier this year, with the political winds to his back, JD Hayworth had dreams of pulling off a Utah-style primary upset. And now? Not so much.
With early voting starting soon in Arizona and the primary day less than a month away (August 24th), two polls show McCain with commanding leads. The most recent Rasmussen poll shows McCain leading by 20 points. Another poll shows McCain leading by even more.
What changed? Here are the top factors that helped McCain:
1. SB 1070 stole Hayworth’s immigration spotlight
Ironically, Arizona’s strict anti-illegal immigration measure probably hurt Hayworth.
Prior to the passage of the law, JD Hayworth was Arizona immigration hawks’ great hope. McCain had supported amnesty in 2007; Washington D.C. perpetually twiddled its thumbs; Jane Brewer was paralyzed by fear. Only JD could take care of the issue . . .
Then SB1070 passed. The urgency of Hayworth’s campaign evaporated. The immigration issue moved from D.C. to Phoenix, from JD Hayworth to Jane Brewer. There was relief among Arizona Republicans – finally somebody had done something.
2. McCain went right on immigration
Since the spring, McCain has gone toe-to-toe with Hayworth on illegal immigration. The 2008 Republican presidential candidate has ceaselessly played up the issue of border security. The Senator, once an outspoken critic of the right’s tendency to demonize illegal immigrants, has become Mr. Border Security, supporting SB 1070, talking about Arizona’s kidnapping problems, touring the border and not worrying about what the left thinks of him.
3. Hayworth can’t escape his past
Unlike most successful Tea Party candidates, Hayworth is no D.C. outsider.
Between 1994 and 2006 Hayworth embodied the worst excesses of the GOP ruling class. For instance, in 2006, he was notoriously linked to Jack Abramoff. He had little prior record of supporting fiscal responsibility. He was, overall, business as usual – what the Tea Party claims to hate.
He even filmed an infomercial on how to get government money:
httpvh://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WmeaywMcCE
4. Big Endorsements
Finally, McCain bolstered his Republican street cred via endorsements. Though Hayworth had the benefit of several key local endorsements, like Sherriff Joe Arpaio, he has had little national support.
McCain, on the other hand, has had a lot. Senator Jon Kyl and prominent congressmen all came out for McCain. Former running mate Sarah Palin campaigned for him in Arizona, much to the chagrin of Hayworth and Arizona Tea Party leaders.
Even the National Review uncharacteristically endorsed McCain – perhaps the ultimate sign of Hayworth’s troubles.