Jim Will Win In Ny-20

Jim Tedisco will probably win the special congressional election now being prolonged in upstate New York.

This is not hype, wishful thinking or a hope-based prediction. After a meeting of the minds that began at 11:00 p.m. on Tuesday night in Jim’s suite at the Saratoga Holiday Inn, there was genuine consensus among his inner circle: “Jim’s going to win.”

As I previously reported, Tedisco’s political director in the NY State Assembly, Matt Dill, had concluded that Murphy was “just not going to take it” as early as Sunday night. In the end, he said, it would be up to [now-Senator Kirsten] “Gillibrand Republicans” to “come home.”

Despite being down by an initial 65 votes, Tedisco had a good night on election night. The liberal New Republic absurdly declared, “Murphy’s election night edge of 65 is a vote of confidence for President Barack Obama and his economic program.” 65 votes? Really? Not much confidence, I must say. The real confidence was in the Holiday Inn ballroom where GOP supporters gathered to realize that, despite their party’s dire national situation, at least on that night, the Democrats can still lose.

With the margins so close, a Republican victory in this race will of course be more of a vote of confidence in Jim Tedisco than in the GOP. But it still definitely will be, and should be, welcomed by all conservatives. With that said, the notes and updates I’ve received from close friends in Jim’s staff and throughout NY-20 are worth reviewing:

• In the words of more than one Tedisco staffer, “AIG saved us.” When the bonus news broke out, Tedisco attacked AIG, et al with much more clarity and believable anger than Murphy, who had to play it safe while still basking in and borrowing the Obama administration’s popularity. It benefited Jim in both donations and votes.
• Columbia County and others that were pro-Murphy were re-canvassed yesterday (all voting machines had their numbers rechecked) and Tedisco is now losing by only 13 votes (Murphy has dropped a total of 34 so far). The remaining counties are expected to follow the same trend in Tedisco’s favor.
• Most absentee ballots were requested by residents of Saratoga County, the most pro-Tedisco county in the district which Scott Murphy lost by 9%, or 4,410 votes.
• Nearly 10,000 total absentee ballots were requested by voters and, according to Tedisco new media director Bryon McKim, about 800 more forms were requested by registered Republicans than by registered Democrats. We’ll see how that plays out.
• Also, more than 1,000 absentee ballots were requested by voters in the military. While the troops usually go 60:40 for the GOP, this time it's even better news for Jim since his opponent has been widely cast as anti-ROTC and anti-capital punishment for mass murderers.
• The Tedisco campaign has begun a strong push for donations to fund Jim’s legal team and their efforts. According to Tedisco spokesman Adam Kramer, the focus is going to be on re-canvassing the entire district, protecting the ballots which were impounded Tuesday night, and making sure that every vote is counted on the same day. (As opposed to one district at a time which would benefit the wealthier and more lawyer-heavy Murphy team. A longer process means more money needed to pay & stay the lawyers, etc.)
• Many of the terms and conditions of the re-canvassing and absentee count (and possible recount) will be decided after this Monday’s court conference. As of now, the ballots will be counted on April 13.
• According to Skidmore College state & local government professor Bob Turner (a regular source for the local press and myself), the mood among his fellow Democrats went from wild to weary rather quickly at Saratoga’s Gideon Putnam Resort where Murphy supporters gathered on Tuesday night. Just about every political junkie present, I’m told, quietly reminded themselves that the district’s absentees “always lean center-right.”
• According to several sources including Turner, Governor Paterson was booed (by a room full of active Democrats!) upon being introduced on Tuesday night at the Gideon Putnam.
• Overall, Democrats were much less upbeat when leaving the Murphy party at the Putnam than the Republicans were leaving their party at the Holiday Inn. As Turner told me on the phone at midnight on Tuesday: “If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Tedisco now.”
• Speaking of my alma mater Skidmore, I’ve been told that Scott Murphy was campaigning on the college’s ultra-leftwing campus and even in the dining hall as late as 6:00 p.m. to get mostly out-of-state liberal students to vote for him at the on-campus voting booth. 167 of them obliged, enough to put Murphy in his current lead (only 11 supported Tedisco).
• According to Turner and several students with whom I spoke, Scott Murphy and his crew eventually "had to be asked to leave" the campus. Plus, I’ve also been informed that the campaign actually stiffed their student volunteers of the “100 dollars a day” which had been advertised to them.

Overall, Jim Tedisco’s chances of victory are quite good. It will still require diligence on the part of his lawyers (not to mention money from supporters to pay them) to make certain an efficient recount and absentee count takes place. But for now, “as long as every vote is counted,” spokesman Kramer assured me, “Jim will win.”