Is the Honeymoon Over for Cameron & Clegg?

So far, Cameron has enjoyed a political honeymoon. But as his coalition cabinet pushes forward with tough budget cuts, the public’s mood may change.

Today, David Cameron’s coalition government reached its first 100 days in power. FrumForum is marking the day with an online symposium.  We asked our contributors: can anything "new" in Cameron's conservatism survive this fiscal crisis?  Click here to read more responses.

Perversely, the fiscal crisis strengthens the chances of Cameron’s modern conservatism surviving and possibly becoming a model for conservative government.

The combination of coalition government and economic breakdown encourages a reformist administration.  With the public finances in such a mess the time is ripe for reform and acting tomorrow is viewed as inappropriate and irresponsible. During the election campaign one of the Conservative central arguments was that excessive government spending had made the state obese. This profligate way of running the country was both unnecessary and unsustainable, thus reducing public spending would be the priority for any new Conservative administration. At the heart of new conservatism is a desire to deliver a smaller state through positive delegation.

The coalition government strengthens Cameron’s reinvention of conservatism because the Liberal Democrats naturally support the ‘new’ ideas. The Big Society agenda, with its promotion of localism and individual responsibility, effortlessly brings together forward thinking Tories and centrist Lib Dems. Cameron’s modernization would have been under greater threat if the Conservatives had gained a tiny majority, forcing him to negotiate with the outer reaches of his own party, many of whom are dismissive of the chosen direction of travel. If the party forces Cameron to retreat to old Conservatism the coalition will crumble.

The economic situation created a strong adhesive between the coalition partners, fostering a feeling of togetherness and joint ownership. Coalition negotiations took place against the backdrop of a burning Greece, which focused minds and, ultimately, led the Lib Dems to embrace fiscal conservatism. Unity on economic policy is crucially important to ensuring the coalition lasts the full five years, giving Cameron enough time to implement the Big Society agenda.

In Cameron’s first 100 days his administration has enjoyed a political honeymoon. Attacks have been easily brushed off; mistakes forgiven and the tough choices agenda has not led to public outrage. But this mood can’t last. It’s easy for people’s rational minds to support the concept of cutting spending to balance the books, however, it becomes a different and emotional issue if ‘my child’s school roof can’t be mended’ or ‘my contract is cancelled’. Mistakes will be portrayed by the media via a ‘cuts are hurting’ narrative. Nothing sells papers like a good old scare story, especially if blame can be heaped on those in high office. Groups, both left and right, who are wary of Cameron’s agenda will use the change in mood to attack the coalition. Strong leadership will be needed when making decisions that may be right but not instantly popular.

The new Conservative ideas are about resolving the structural problems that created the fiscal crises. Cameron will make it work because it has to work. There will be no mandate for a second go and no money to spend on a second agenda.