Is Sarko's Libya Response a Domestic Power Play?
Sarkozy has received praise for recognizing Libya's opposition. But the move may have been made with domestic political concerns in mind.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy's recognition of the Libyan opposition as the new legitimate government has received much attention. However, the decision may have more to do with French domestic politics than with foreign policy.
A few days ago, Sarkozy appointed a handful of new ministers in his government, including Alain Juppé as the new foreign minister. Juppé is a traditional Gaullist, closer to Chirac or Villepin than he is to Sarkozy. Sarkozy however had no choice but to make the appointment. The polls for the upcoming presidential contest are bad, and show Sarkozy defeated in each scenario. Many scenarios also suggest that Marine Le Pen, the National Front leader, could reach the second ballot (only the two strongest candidates do).
Sarkozy faces a complex triangulation problem. If Le Pen gets to the second round against him, he will win, but of course there is no guarantee that he will even pass the first round. Sarkozy’s priority has been to make sure no rival from the right will take any significant number of votes during the first ballot, and - if possible - that the opposite happens on the left.
Sarkozy thus had no choice but to reach out to the old neo-Gaullist clique, including people like Villepin (with whom he has spoken recently) and Juppé, who was called to replace Michèle Alliot-Marie who was apparently caught attempting fiscal evasion in Tunisia a few weeks before Ben Ali's removal.
Sarkozy’s recognition of the Libyan opposition may have been an attempt to remind his new minister and rival Juppé that he’s still in charge of foreign policy and more generally that he’s the boss.
According to reports from the press, Juppé learnt about Sarkozy's recognition of the Libyan opposition by a news agency dispatch and looked positively surprised when journalists asked him to comment.
As for the air strikes proposal, it is just that: a proposal. During the 90's, Mitterrand once also "proposed" a European intervention knowing that the British would refuse. The end result: France looked brave and the UK not so.
So Sarkozy may kill two birds with one stone. Juppé and the other traditional Gaullists are back in line, Libya's possible future leaders like him and it's not his fault if Europe does nothing to help them.
Now, this may be too cynical. France has some accounts to settle with Libya and Sarkozy may well be sincerely seeking retribution against Qaddafi as a bonus.