Is Obama Ready to Dump Mubarak?

Despite calls for restraint and reform, the situation in Egypt is beyond Obama's control. As protests spread, will the U.S. have any Arab allies left?

The riots in Cairo seem both a surprise and an embarrassment for the Obama White House – to say nothing of demonstrations in Tunisia and now beginning in Morocco.

Shortly after he was elected President of the U.S., Barack Obama visited Cairo and identified with Muslim aspirations, and pledged support for President Hosni Mubarak and Egypt’s advance towards democracy.

Although enthusiastically greeted by Egyptians, it was somewhat premature – as a lot of Obama’s gestures seem to be.

Depending on how one looks at it, the Arab world is in some turmoil at the moment -- at least that part of the Arab world that is considered sensible, stable and pro-American.

Egypt is not a democracy. Nor are Tunisia and Morocco in a Jeffersonian sense. But the latter two have always been regarded as secure Arab countries, immune from the street violence that often plagues other Arab, or Muslim states.

Add discontent in Libya and Iran’s seething population to the mix, plus the erratic, volatile Yemen, and you have the Middle East on the brink of god knows what.

The cry from the Egyptian streets that Mubarak’s 30 years in power is too long and he must be replaced, is simply the trigger for rebellion. As in so many countries near the poverty line, lack of progress and continuing economic malaise feeds the lust to overthrow whoever is in power.

We’ve seen the demonstrations that ripped Athens apart, and Greece is a democratic country where the people are fed up and think they won’t take it any more. Portugal, Spain, Eire, even Britain, know the feeling.

As for Egypt, it looks difficult for the U.S. to save Mubarak. In fact, there are signs that the U.S. is readying to dump him -- although not as dastardly and cowardly as the dreadful Jimmy Carter abandoned the Shah of Iran, who was America’s steadiest ally.

Instead we have Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urging Mubarak and the army to show “restraint” with protestors, while simultaneously urging protesters to be “peaceful” and non-violent. Fat chance.

Hillary’s and Obama’s implied threat is that if Mubarak chooses the traditional Muslim way to curb dissent – bullets, beatings, repression – the U.S. may abandon him (they will), well, there’s not much the U.S. can do except get ready to work with whoever the next Egyptian dictator is.

Murbarak’s future likely hinges on the army. Already there are signs the army is at least sympathetic with the demonstrators, and dislikes the police, whom everyone seems to mistrust.

Egypt was in turmoil when King Farouk was ousted in 1952, replaced by Gamal Abdel Nasser who nationalized the Suez Canal, created the United Arab Republic (Syria and Egypt) and sought (failed) to lead the Arab world.

After two losing wars with Israel, his brilliance became tarnished and when he died in 1970 (age 52), Anwar Sadat amazingly changed Egypt’s direction until he was assassinated. Mubarak inherited his legacy.

While it may be too early to predict the outcome of discontent spreading across the Arab world, it’s fair to say things will not return to the way they were.

Despite Obama’s gestures (oppose violence . . . show restraint . . . support universal rights . . . hasten political reform), it’s questionable if the U.S. has a reliable Arab ally left in the Arab world.

Jordan, maybe, and Saudi Arabia which plays every side against the other and is the paymaster and originator for Jihadist malignancy.

Not an easy future that beckons.