Is Libya's Star Defector a Fake?

Is Libya’s most important defector to the West really on a deep-cover diplomatic mission? One of the architects of the 2001 prosecution of two Libyans charged with downing the Pan Am flight over Lockerbie thinks it is possible.

One of Qaddafi's most reliable allies – and most feared enforcers – Moussa Koussa arrived in England on Wednesday from Tunisia. He has reportedly been seeking medical treatment and is now being debriefed. Both the U.K. and U.S. heralded his defection as a stunning coup since he is the highest-level member of the dictator's palace guard to abandon him since the popular uprising began in January.

But Robert Black, the Edinburgh University law professor emeritus who engineered the special trial that convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, said Koussa may well be playing a double-game with the full knowledge and encouragement of the U.S. and U.K.

"Has Moussa Koussa really defected? There are some indications that this may be a diplomatic mission – negotiating an exit strategy for the Qaddafi regime – rather than a defection," Black said at his blog, listing some of those indications:

2. He was accompanied to Tunisia (but not beyond) for his flight from Djerba to Farnborough by Abdel Ati al-Obeidi who remains a trusted counselor of Qaddafi (and a trusted intermediary in the eyes of the U.K. and U.S.).

3. If Koussa had defected, he would surely have negotiated immunity from prosecution for any personal involvement in Lockerbie (if Libya was implicated in any capacity, Koussa would inevitably have been personally involved). According to U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague, no such immunity has been granted. This suggests that his visit is already covered by diplomatic immunity.

Some intelligence analysts agree. They say a defection story may have been floated for a combination of plausible reasons: as a face-saving maneuver for a proud Qaddafi while Koussa discusses the final terms of his exile; as a morale-booster for rebel forces; and, perhaps most consequentially, as a feint allowing for Anglo-American input into the shape of whatever Libyan government emerges if the strongman exits the stage.

Neither the U.K. or the U.S. wants to exchange Qaddafi's regime for an Islamist-dominated one on the Mediterranean. Koussa might be able to play a post-Qaddafi role in shaping that next regime.

According to diplomats, Koussa has come to be viewed as a trusted partner by both the U.S. and the U.K. as well as a skilled go-between with the sometimes obdurate Qaddafi. But his past is not very clean.

In the late 1970s Koussa once served as Libya's de facto ambassador to the U.K. at its London People's Bureau (Qaddafi-speak for embassy). He was expelled in 1980 after two Libyan opposition figures were assassinated in London and he publicly celebrated Qaddafi's program of liquidating "stray dogs", leading U.K. tabloids to label him the "Envoy of Death."

His rehabilitation by the West is particularly remarkable since Koussa has long been suspected of helping to choreograph a series of terrorist incidents including the 1984 shooting from inside the London People's Bureau which killed a female police officer; the 1986 bombing of a Berlin disco which killed two U.S. soldiers and injured 230, including 50 American troops; the bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie in which 270 people died; and the 1989 bombing of a French airliner over the Saharan desert which killed 171.

But within days of the 9/11 al-Qaeda attacks, it was Koussa who persuaded Qaddafi to embark on a policy of rapprochement with the West given they now shared the common objective of containing Islamist militancy. (Osama bin-Laden had long been inciting unrest among Libyan Islamist groups in the east of the country.)

Koussa later convinced the dictator to abandon the Libyan nuclear weapons program in return for the full restoration of Western diplomatic and economic links. He is also credited with providing the West with information which helped to expose Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan's black market in illicit nuclear weapons technology transfers.

Scottish police have said they would like to interview Koussa concerning the Lockerbie case, but in what "The Times" called "an unusual intervention", Foreign Office officials later said Koussa was not the “prime suspect” in the Lockerbie bombing. And they also failed to rule out the possibility Koussa might leave the U.K. before investigations are completed.

"Surprise, surprise," commented Robert Black.