Is Egypt the Next Iran?

When dictatorships are overthrown, expectations are that democracy will flourish. Unfortunately, this is rarely the case.

Why is it when dictatorships are overthrown, expectations are that democracy will flourish?

This is rarely the case. At least not immediately.

Historically, it’s more likely when an old dictatorship is bounced, a new dictatorship, or authoritarian regime, will take over.

Still, hopes abound that somehow things will improve when a tyranny is replaced.

At the moment, Egypt is the focus of attention as the 30-year Mubarak is replaced by  . . .  well, no one is sure what, but hopes are that there’ll be elections (almost certain) and that the new government will be democratic (unlikely) and responsive to the will of the Egyptian people (don’t bet on it).

It may seem churlish to be pessimistic, but in Egypt, as in most Arab countries, one must take into account the Muslim Brotherhood which has shown remarkable determination, stamina and resilience over the years.

The Brotherhood is not known for tolerance, but it is patient and resourceful. Using violence to achieve its ends is no deterrence.

Under Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt became a secular state – anathema to the Muslim Brotherhood – and secularism was steadily eroded under Hosni Mubarak. Today, Islamic fundamentalism is on the rise in Egypt.

None of this bodes well for those who yearn for democracy.

Revolutions, or over the overthrow of regimes, are usually not welcomed by world leaders. Better the tyrant you know than the one you aren’t sure of. Status quo is a virtue.

Revolutions can have a domino effect – look at the demonstrations that have erupted (re-erupted is more like it) in Iran, and protests in Yemen, unrest in Morocco, tension in Jordan, and who-knows-what in Lebanon. Even Turkey is in disarray as fundamentalism challenges secularism. And some Gulf States are experiencing discontent.

Egypt’s outpouring of discontent was triggered by demonstrations in Tunisia that deposed the government.

As evidence of how unexpected discontent can be, look at how President Barack Obama was caught flat-footed about Egypt; he and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had different readings on what to do.

A hitherto trusted ally, Mubarak was quickly dumped by the U.S., albeit not as ruthlessly and cravenly as the Jimmy Carter regime dumped the Shah of Iran when the Ayatollah Khomeini grabbed power.

At that time, some saw deposing the Shah as a victory for democracy.

The Arab world is once again in play.

In some ways, Egypt is a lynch pin. A betting person would wager that the big winner is likely to be the Muslim Brotherhood. If not them, then the army, which often emerges as the savior when chaos envelopes a country. After all, that’s how Col. Nasser got power when King Farouk was deposed and the Naguib revolutionary government stumbled.

The classic case of the army as savior has been Pakistan. When elected governments succumb to intolerable corruption, the army has taken over and eased corruption until a civilian government once again tries to run the country. When it fails, the army takes over again. It’s been almost a 50-50 split running the country since independence in 1947.

Egypt is quiet at the moment – the current storm seeming past, and a new beginning for the country. Sorry, folks, but that’s wishful thinking.

More likely it’s a pause, before the real storm begins.

The question begs: Is Egypt likely to become the next Iran?

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