Incumbents Beware

The convention defeat of Utah's Sen. Bennett, has many political watchers convinced of an anti-Democratic tide in November, but other signs suggest a larger anti-incumbent movement targeting veterans of both parties.

With the recent results of the Republican convention in Utah, many contend that there is a strong anti-Left sentiment that will shape this upcoming election. There is another trend out there that suggests senators who have been around for more than three terms are not exactly ensured their seat this fall either.

In a Rasmussen poll, a “Generic Republican” received 33% of the vote against Vermont’s six-term Sen. Patrick Leahy. Sen. Leahy won his seat with 70% of the vote and is currently twelve points away from that level of support. Similarly, five-term Iowa Republican incumbent Sen. Chuck Grassley who was elected with 70% of the vote in his most recent election faces a Democrat polling 40%. In fact, of the eleven races involving senators serving more than three terms, the incumbent is either tied or losing in six and only one, Sen. Inouye (D-Hawaii), shows support above 60%.

Especially after the convention defeat of Sen. Bennett it’s worth considering: Is this tide anti-Democratic– or anti-incumbent?

The views expressed in this piece are solely that of the author.