Illinois Race Kirk's to Lose
A new Rasmussen Reports survey of the Illinois Senate race now puts Mark Kirk up eight points over the embattled Alexi Giannoulias. Kirk's total moved from 41% in early April to 46%, while Giannoulias neither gained nor lost ground. Kirk's 46-38 lead means that Alexi Giannoulias not only needs to prevent his family bank problems and ties to Rod Blagojevich from scaring away supporters, he actually will need to attract new votes with the issues hanging over his head.
The numbers are no victory for the Kirk camp. The survey was conducted before President Obama offered his support, so they may be tighter than the numbers show, and even if they are not, the fact that Kirk hasn't buried Giannoulias despite all of his problems and an enormous fund raising advantage suggests that his bank woes alone won't sink Democrat’s campaign.
While 41% do say that the Broadway Bank failure is at least somewhat important in their decision about how they will vote, 49% said it’s not very or not at all important. That said, independents are more likely to rate the issue as important in determining their vote than individuals affiliated with either major party, meaning that Giannoulias is going to have a tough time swinging the 12% of voters who are undecided. If Giannoulias doesn't win an overwhelming portion of remaining undecideds, it is unlikely that he can win this race.
These poll results simply confirm what most following the race know: the race is Kirk's to lose.