Illinois Senate Race Still Kirk's To Lose
The latest Rasmussen poll might show that the Illinois Senate race is in a dead heat, but GOP candidate Rep. Mark Kirk still holds the competitive edge.
The Illinois Senate race is still up in the air... A new Rasmussen survey pegs the race at 43%-41% in Giannoulias' favor. The two point difference is within the poll's margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. In other words: it’s a dead heat.
If the first paragraph looks familiar, it’s because very little has changed since Kirk lost his lead after a series of negative news cycles that focused on Kirk's reporting of his military record.
Despite the gap, Mark Kirk should win this race. With the race in what amounts to a dead heat, we need to look elsewhere to figure out if anyone has an advantage. Voters with strong opinions are the most likely to vote, and here, Kirk has a considerable advantage. 10 % of voters view Kirk “very favorably” while only 7% said the same of Giannoulias), giving Kirk a 3% edge. Also while 14% will most likely vote against him (that’s the percentage that view Kirk “very unfavorably”) 25% view Giannoulias “very unfavorably”. By this metric, Kirk as an 11% edge.
Furthermore, Kirk has considerably more cash to spend down the stretch of the campaign than Mr. Giannoulias. Kirk has roughly $3.9 million cash on hand, while Giannoulias has just slightly more than a million dollars to burn. Giannoulias will try to make up some ground when the President comes to town to host what amounts to an emergency fundraiser for the man trying to win his old Senate seat. There is little reason though to believe that this will be more than a band-aid on the candidate’s cash woes, especially since Vice President Biden, Arne Duncan, and David Plouffe all hosted similar events last quarter and Kirk still outraised Giannoulias by a wide margin. $3 million is an extremely large cash advantage and will allow Kirk to do far, far more advertising down the stretch of the campaign than Giannoulias.
If Rep. Kirk can't win in this year against this opponent, the Republican party probably should just pack up and go home. If Rep. Kirk is not “Senator-elect” Kirk come November 3rd, he will have only himself to blame. This is his race to lose.
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