If Obama Pushes, Netanyahu Will Fall

In yesterday’s Israeli election, Kadima (probably) obtained one more seat than Likud, but it is Likud that has the better chance of assembling a governing coalition. Hence the absurd spectacle of both Netanyahu and Livni claiming victory.

This stalemate is a result of Israel's outdated and dysfunctional voting system. Originally, Israel adopted proportional representation because its first elections had to be organized while the War of Independence was still raging. In October 1948, election committee chairman David Bar-Rav-Hai wrote that "If we want to carry out an election quickly, we have no choice but to opt for a national proportionate system. Any other system would demand much more complicated preparations and will be impossible to carry out within a short period of time."

Ben-Gurion called for the adoption of a majority system after the war, but his efforts were undermined by the small and religious parties, which benefit from proportional elections. Bills calling for regional elections were submitted some ten times between 1958 and 1988, but the small and religious parties consistently prevented them from passing. The small and religious parties are still determined to torpedo electoral reform.

Technically, Netanyahu can form a narrow conservative government supported by 65 of the Knesset's 120 members. Such a government would include Netanyahu's own Likud party, Avigdor Lieberman's "Israel Beitenu," the two parties representing the national-religious public (the value oriented "Jewish Home" and the hawkish "National Union"), and the two ultra-orthodox parties (The Sephardic "Shas" and the Ashkenazi "United Torah Judaism"). To form such a government, Netanyahu will have to overcome the wide ideological gap and bitter animosity between Israel Beitenu and Shas. Israel Beitenu has a secularist agenda (including the instauration of civil weddings), wants all Israeli citizens to either serve in the army or fulfill some kind of national service, and insists on reforming Israel's political system. Shas opposes civil weddings, wants to keep Talmud students away from the army, and refuses to reform Israel's electoral system. Moreover, its anti-capitalist ideology would make it hard for Netanyahu to implement his pro-market reforms. But even if Netanyahu were able to form such a government, his political life would soon become miserable. A narrow conservative Israeli government would be harassed by Israel's media, academia, and parliamentary Left. It would be ostracized by European opinion makers as "anti-peace" and even fascist. Most importantly, it would collide with the new US Administration, which seems determined to demand from Israel things that are unacceptable to Israel Beitenu (such as accepting another truce with Hamas) and to the National Union (such as freezing settlement construction). Clearly, a narrow right-wing government would frustrate any US attempt to revive the Road Map.

Which is why Netanyahu had hoped to form a coalition with Kadima. Except that Kadima gained one more seat than Likud and therefore claims that Likud is in no position to form the new government. Livni says she should be the one in charge of forming the next government, but her chances of doing so are slim at best. The Left is basically inexistent (Labor obtained 13 seats and Meretz 3). Theoretically, Livni could form a coalition with Labor, Meretz, Israel Beitenu and Shas (total: 70 MKs). After depicting Lieberman as an extremist and even a fascist during the campaign, Kadima spokespeople are suddenly describing him as a pragmatic and practical man with whom Kadima can do business. But the ideological gaps are too wide between Meretz and Israel Beitenu. Even if Meretz were to be left out, a coalition between Labor, Israel Beitenu and Shas is highly unlikely. Besides, Labor’s Ehud Barak seems determined to be in opposition in order to restore his party's credibility vis-à-vis its constituents.

If Netanyahu does constitute a narrow conservative government, he will likely try and bring Kadima in after a few months. Such a scenario might materialize if Livni fails to form a coalition. But joining a Netanyahu government would serve Likud's interests more then it would serve Kadima's. Until Kadima joins a Likud-led government (which might not happen), the Obama Administration will basically be able to make Netanyahu's government fall by making demands such as restraint vis-à-vis Hamas or a complete settlement freeze. For if Netanyahu decides to accept US demands, his more hawkish coalition partners (Israel Beitenu and the National Union) will leave the government. This would almost certainly compel Israel to yet another round of early elections. Ironically, by trying to achieve stability in the Middle East, the Obama Administration would likely cause instability in Israeli politics, thus lowering the chances of implementing its declared goal of reaching a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.