How the Tea Party Could Save the GOP

FF Symposium: A libertarian Tea Party could be the tip of the spear for a Republican revival instead of the conservative deadweight Jonathan Rauch foresees.

Jonathan Rauch has written a valuable article.  In my view, its primary contribution comes in undermining the widespread belief among conservatives that unaffiliated/deaffiliated voters in fact behave like weak partisans -- generally voting for one party, but not as aggressively committed to the party's principles as registered voters.  What this article seems to show is that the unaffiliated Republicans are in fact more committed to the GOP's principles than the GOP itself.

What this means, however, remains unclear, and I think that additional data on what makes the Tea Party tick would help us in understanding the long-term impact of this phenomenon.  As I understand Rauch's argument, this conservative shift is damaging to the GOP's long-term prospects.  The Tea Party represents the rightward shift of independent Republicans.  As he puts it, to appeal to these "white working-class and Christian" Tea Partiers, a shrinking demographic constituency, the GOP will have to advocate policies that alienate growing constituencies, "minorities, left-leaning women, professionals, and socially liberal Millenial Generation voters."

The accuracy of this assessment depends on what the Tea Party is, what policies it supports, and why these people have debranded.  These questions are not fully answered in Rauch's article.  Rauch himself states, "What appears to be happening is that debranded Republicans are more economically than socially conservative.  True, many of them may be both, but the issues that motivate them are primarily economic.  Their flight from the Republican Party is pulling the average ideology of independents in a libertarian direction, a trend amplified by a milder tendency of non-leaning independents to move in the same direction."  So the Tea Party is primarily concerned with economic issues.  But which ones?  And why was the GOP unsatisfactory?  Surely it was not because of a failure to enact tax cuts.  Rather, as suggested by the theme of the August town halls, the political origins of the Tea Party (the bailouts), and the rhetoric of talk radio, the founder of the Tea Party (Santelli), and its heroes (Paul Ryan and Chris Christie), the issue driving the Tea Party is an incompetent government that has spent itself into fiscal catastrophe.  It is worth noting here that even Levin and Hannity routinely state that they favor government doing certain things (building roads, cleaning the Gulf, and in some cases even providing for the destitute (It would have been interesting to see Pew ask whether 'government should provide a safety net to protect the truly destitute'.)

Rauch's own evidence -- that the Tea Party thinks government needs very major reform, that the middle class gets short shrift, that government deserves poor ratings -- suggests that a libertarian Tea Party could be the tip of the spear of a Republican revival rather than a conservative anchor on a GOP that needs to appeal to changing demographics.  Rauch, I think perhaps contrary to his own evidence and words, looks at the Tea Party and sees Michelle Bachman and Glenn Beck.  No doubt that element is there.  But, as Continetti pointed out in his thoughtful piece, the Tea Party is also a movement committed to the principles of Paul Ryan -- we have spent ourselves into a ditch, there is no money left over for the government to do the things it is actually charged with doing (and might do competently), and the middle class will wind up holding the bag in the form of a 'lost decade.'  It is not clear that this shift toward libertarian competence (smaller but more effective government) necessarily shuts the GOP out from a demographically shifting electorate.  Rather, it would seem to be a tailor made message for middle class office park professionals (Rauch does not appear to include these voters in his description of "professionals" who are beyond the conservative reach, focusing instead on the wealthy professional class) as well as the young, both groups that stand to lose significantly under the current entitlement system.

I would also add that while it is critical for the GOP to elect and promote moderates, they need to be the right kind of moderates.  Wishing for additional Specters and Snowes only guarantees a split-the-difference focus on reelection rather than a unique voice that speaks to the anxieties of middle income conservative voters.