How the GOP Could Gain from Obamacare

The passage of Obamacare could help the Republican party more politically than killing it ever would have.

I cannot agree with David Frum's broad point, that the Republican stance on healthcare was at best foolish, and at worst irresponsible policy-making, more. That said, Frum gives Republicans too much credit in asserting that they ever believed they could foil Obamacare. In any event, the passage of a bad bill likely helps Republicans more politically than killing it ever would have.

Frum doesn't consider the possibility that congressional Republicans chose to allow Obamacare to pass to gain politically. Republicans understood that the odds were good that president and the overwhelmingly Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress would pass some health reforms. Rather than fighting a losing battle, the GOP's decision to not negotiate a settlement may have been wholly political move to position themselves to gain at election time.

For starters, while Obamacare does some good, its positive impact won't be felt until 2014, whereas the negative effects of the legislation will be more readily apparent, particularly to senior voters. While the bill does good things, like closing the prescription drug “doughnut hole,” it also reduces benefits for the elderly. Between now and the 2012 election, the reforms will take billions out of Medicare, alarming these older voters.  Medicare is political dynamite: running against Medicare cuts helped vault Republicans to their 1994 coup and later helped secure Bill Clinton a second term. Democrats will argue that these cuts won’t impact their coverage, but even the CBO is unsure if this will actually be the case. Making matters worse for the Democrats, Jay Cost points out that the Medicare cuts will be felt by even more people than usual since many baby boomers are just starting to (or about to) receive benefits; benefits which will not be as generous as expected. Furthermore, the bill will increase the deficit a great deal in the immediate future, giving Republicans another issue to run on.

The immediate political impact really could be quite considerable. That said, Frum's general argument still holds: Republicans didn't refuse to negotiate in order to serve the public's interest, they did it to serve their own. In doing so, they threw the baby out with the bathwater, but they may win some congressional seats. Some bargain.